Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders
Sunday, October 4, 2026
9:30 AM ET, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London)
The Colts are 3.5-point favorites over the Commanders in London with a total of 47.5. My play is the Over.
The defensive matchup is the entry point here — or more accurately, the lack of defense on both sides. Through three games, Washington has allowed 11 touchdown passes and an opponent passer rating of 124.4, the worst mark in the NFL. The Commanders are giving up 30.7 points per game. Every quarterback who has faced them has looked comfortable, and now Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor (four rushing touchdowns already) get their shot.
The Colts’ defense isn’t much better. Indianapolis has allowed 10 touchdowns, a 110.4 opponent passer rating (fifth-worst in the league) and 30.3 points per game. The Colts still don’t have an interception this season. They gave up 41 to Baltimore in Week 1 and 33 to Kansas City in an overtime loss in Week 2 before holding Houston to 17 last week. That Week 3 effort came against a Texans offense averaging 18 points a game, so it says more about Houston than it does about a turnaround in Indianapolis.
Marcus Mariota gives Washington a real offense even without Jayden Daniels. Daniels dislocated his non-throwing elbow in Week 2, and while he traveled to London, reports have him unlikely to play. Mariota went 19-of-31 for three touchdowns and no interceptions in last week’s 33-31 upset of Seattle as an 8.5-point underdog. Washington has scored 25.0 points per game and eight offensive touchdowns, and against a Colts pass defense that can’t force turnovers, 24-28 points is a realistic target.
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The Over trends are strong on both sides. Washington games are 3-0 to the Over this season and 8-2 to the Over in their last 10. Colts games are 2-1 to the Over. Washington’s three games have produced 46, 57 and 64 total points. Indianapolis’ three games have produced 64, 63 and 36. That’s an average of 55 points across these two teams’ six games, well above 47.5.
The one mark against the Over is the venue. International games have historically leaned toward the Under, averaging just under 44 points. But those numbers come from a mix of matchups, and this one pairs two defenses ranked near the bottom of the league against the pass. The London setting doesn’t fix a 124.4 opponent passer rating.
The Colts are also a bit thinner at receiver after Alec Pierce went on injured reserve with a heel injury, but Indianapolis is averaging 24 points per game and has the run game to stay on schedule against a Washington defense that gives up points in every way possible.
Realistic outcomes: Colts 27, Commanders 24 (51 total); Commanders 28, Colts 24 (52 total); Colts 31, Commanders 24 (55 total); or Colts 24, Commanders 20 (44 total, under). Three of four scenarios go over 47.5. The Under needs both defenses to play better than they have all season.
The Pick: Colts/Commanders Over 47.5
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