New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Sunday, October 4, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Soldier Field
Chicago is a 3.5-point home favorite over the Jets with a total of 42.5. My play is the Jets getting the points.
The quarterback situation is the entry point here. Caleb Williams suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain against Minnesota in Week 2, and Adam Schefter reported he’s expected to miss three to four weeks. He sat out Wednesday’s practice, and Ben Johnson hasn’t named a starter. Case Keenum filled in on Monday night against Philadelphia, while Tyson Bagent was working back from a concussion. Whoever starts, Chicago is laying more than a field goal without its franchise quarterback.
The line has moved the wrong way for Chicago’s situation. This game opened at Bears -3 and has moved to -3.5 after Monday night’s 27-7 win over the Eagles. That win came with six takeaways, and turnover totals like that don’t repeat week to week. Keenum played well (247 yards, two passing touchdowns and a rushing score), but a defense handing its offense six extra possessions made his night a lot easier. The market is paying for that blowout, and it’s giving us the hook.
The Jets are 1-2 straight up but 2-1 against the spread. They beat Tennessee 23-10, lost to Green Bay 20-17 in overtime, and lost 31-24 at Detroit as 6.5-point underdogs, missing the cover by just a half-point. Geno Smith was sharp in Detroit, going 31-of-37 for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Aaron Glenn’s team has played three competitive games and has been within one score late in two of its losses.
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Chicago’s offense without Williams is a question mark. The Bears have scored 29.7 points per game, but that number is inflated by a 59-37 shootout in Carolina in Week 1. When Minnesota’s defense had them in Week 2, the Bears scored three points in a 9-3 loss. With a backup quarterback, expect something closer to the Minnesota version than the Carolina version.
The Bears’ defense is legitimate — Chicago allows 17.7 points per game (seventh in the league) and ranks among the top eight in pressure rate — and that’s the main risk to this play. The Jets’ defense is middle of the pack at 20.3 points allowed (12th), and it gave up 381 yards to Detroit. But in a low-total game at 42.5, both offenses will be working for every point, and a low-scoring game makes 3.5 points more valuable.
Keep an eye on the Jets’ injury report: running back Breece Hall (thigh) and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick are both questionable.
Realistic outcomes: Bears 20, Jets 17 (3-point margin, Jets cover +3.5); Jets 20, Bears 17 (Jets win outright); Bears 23, Jets 20 (3-point margin, Jets cover); or Bears 27, Jets 17 (10-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for New York, and a field-goal game is the most likely outcome in a matchup with this total.
The Pick: New York Jets +3.5
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