Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, October 3, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Kinnick Stadium
Ohio State is a 13.5-point road favorite over Iowa with a total of 45.5. My play is the Hawkeyes getting the points.
Iowa’s defense is the entry point here. The Hawkeyes are 4-0 and lead the nation in scoring defense at 8.0 points per game. Two of those games were shutouts of Northern Illinois (40-0) and Northern Iowa (55-0), but this unit has held up against real competition too. Iowa held Iowa State to 13 in a 16-13 rivalry win and went into Ann Arbor last week and held Michigan to 19 in a 20-19 win, sealed on a last-second touchdown. Phil Parker’s defense allows 152.0 passing yards per game (12th nationally) and just 87.8 rushing yards per game.
That defense makes Iowa a live underdog against anyone, and the numbers back it up. The Hawkeyes are 6-0 against the spread as an underdog since the start of last season. Kirk Ferentz’s teams keep games low-scoring and close, and that’s exactly what you want when you’re getting two touchdowns.
Ohio State’s road games have followed the same script. The Buckeyes have gone Under the total in each of their last five road games. Their only road game this season was a 24-23 loss at Texas, where they led 20-3 at halftime and didn’t score in the fourth quarter. Ryan Day’s team is explosive at home, but it has played tighter, lower-scoring games away from Columbus.
That’s not to say Ohio State lacks firepower. The Buckeyes are 3-1, averaging 45.0 points per game, and Jeremiah Smith just caught 12 passes for 217 yards and four touchdowns in last week’s 42-19 win over Illinois. Julian Sayin and Smith are the biggest threat to this pick, and Iowa’s secondary did allow 236 receiving yards to Michigan last week. But Ohio State is also a team that stalled for an entire quarter on the road at Texas, and Kinnick will be loud with College GameDay in town.
Iowa’s offense doesn’t need to do much. The Hawkeyes run for 215.5 yards per game and average 32.8 points, and their game plan against Ohio State will be to grind the clock and shorten the game. Ohio State’s defense is strong (12.3 points per game allowed), so expect Iowa to score in the 14-20 range. Fewer possessions and a low-scoring game make 13.5 points worth a lot.
Realistic outcomes: Ohio State 27, Iowa 17 (10-point margin, Iowa covers +13.5); Ohio State 24, Iowa 14 (10-point margin, Iowa covers); Ohio State 31, Iowa 20 (11-point margin, covers by 2.5); or Ohio State 34, Iowa 17 (17-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Iowa.
The Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes +13.5
Take the Hawkeyes and nearly two touchdowns behind the nation’s top scoring defense, and bring some extra bankroll into Saturday. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Iowa +13.5 and the rest of your Week 5 college football picks.
