Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 4, 2026
4:25 PM ET, Lumen Field
Seattle is a 6.5-point home favorite over Los Angeles with a total of 42.5. My play is the Under.
The Chargers’ offense is the entry point here. Los Angeles is 0-3 and averaging 14.7 points per game, fourth-worst in the NFL. The Chargers lost 26-14 to Arizona and 26-14 to Las Vegas, then managed just 16 points in a 24-16 loss at Buffalo. Justin Herbert is completing only 59.1% of his passes with three touchdowns and four interceptions, and this offense hasn’t been able to sustain drives or finish them.
Seattle’s defense makes it harder. The defending Super Bowl champions held New England to 10 points and Arizona to 7 in their first two games before giving up 33 to Washington last week. Mike Macdonald’s group will be motivated after that upset loss, the Seahawks’ first defeat since Week 11 of last season, and Lumen Field is one of the toughest places in the league for a struggling offense to find a rhythm. Realistically, the Chargers are looking at 10-17 points in this game.
The Chargers’ Under trend backs it up. The Under is 8-2 in the Chargers’ last 10 games and 6-4 in Seattle’s last 10. When an offense is this limited, the total depends almost entirely on what the other team does.
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Seattle’s offense is the honest risk. Sam Darnold returned from a glute injury last week and threw for 379 yards and four touchdowns against Washington, and the Seahawks are averaging 25.0 points per game. Seattle won its home games last season by an average of 10.4 points. But this is a Macdonald team built around defense and ball control, and the Seahawks will be without rookie running back Jadarian Price (chest). Expect Seattle to put up 24-27 points and lean on its defense to close it out against a Chargers offense that has topped 16 points just once in its last several games.
That gives us a combined range of 34-44 points, with most realistic outcomes landing in the high 30s and low 40s, under 42.5.
Realistic outcomes: Seahawks 24, Chargers 13 (37 total); Seahawks 27, Chargers 14 (41 total); Seahawks 24, Chargers 17 (41 total); or Seahawks 31, Chargers 17 (48 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 42.5. The Over needs Herbert to snap out of a three-week slump on the road against the defending champs.
The Pick: Chargers/Seahawks Under 42.5
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