Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Thursday Night Football
Thursday, October 8, 2026
8:15 PM ET, AT&T Stadium
Dallas is a 9.5-point home favorite over Tampa Bay on Thursday Night Football with a total of 47.5. My play is the Buccaneers getting the points.
Tampa Bay’s losses are the entry point here. The Buccaneers are 0-4, but they’ve lost those four games by a combined 20 points. They’ve been in every game into the fourth quarter, including last week’s 17-14 loss to Green Bay as 3.5-point underdogs, which was rookie Jalon Daniels’ first NFL start in place of the injured Baker Mayfield. Tampa Bay drove for a potential tying or winning score late before a sack on third down ended it. A team that keeps losing close games is the type of team that covers a big number.
Daniels gets a matchup that fits his skill set. Dallas has been gashed by mobile quarterbacks this season, allowing the most rushing yards to the quarterback position in the NFL, and the Cowboys rank 28th in yards per carry allowed overall. Daniels showed his legs in his debut, and Bucky Irving is available in the backfield. Against a Dallas run defense this vulnerable, Tampa Bay can sustain drives, shorten the game and keep the Cowboys’ offense on the sideline.
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Dallas’ defense also can’t keep teams off the scoreboard. The Cowboys beat Houston 34-30 last week, but they needed a second-half comeback after Nico Collins went for 118 yards and two touchdowns in his return from injury. Dallas has gone Over the total in all four games this season. A defense that gives up points in bunches makes a 9.5-point cover tough even for a team that scores as much as this one.
The risk is Dallas’ offense. The Cowboys are averaging the fifth-most points per drive of any team since 2000. Dak Prescott threw for 335 yards against Houston, CeeDee Lamb set a franchise record with 17 catches for 189 yards, and Javonte Williams ran for three touchdowns. Tampa Bay’s secondary is also banged up, with cornerback Benjamin Morrison missing Week 4 and Antoine Winfield Jr. hurt against Green Bay. Dallas will score. But Tampa Bay should be able to answer against a defense this vulnerable, and the Bucs have kept every game within reach this season.
Realistic outcomes: Cowboys 24, Buccaneers 17 (7-point margin, Bucs cover +9.5); Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 20 (7-point margin, Bucs cover); Cowboys 28, Buccaneers 21 (7-point margin, Bucs cover); or Cowboys 31, Buccaneers 17 (14-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Tampa Bay.
The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5
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