Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals
Friday, October 9, 2026
7:00 PM ET, L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Louisville is a 4-point home favorite over Florida State with a total of 58.5. My play is the Seminoles getting the points.
Louisville’s close games are the entry point here. The Cardinals are 2-3, and all three losses have come by exactly three points: 41-38 to Ole Miss in Nashville, 30-27 at home to Wake Forest and 31-28 at NC State last week. Jeff Brohm’s team scores, averaging 38.6 points per game, but it hasn’t been able to pull away from anyone with a pulse. A team whose games keep landing on a field goal is a team you want to take points against.
Louisville’s defense is the reason those games stay close. The Cardinals allow 29.2 points per game (113th nationally), and their pass defense ranks 130th, giving up 266.8 yards per game. That’s a unit Florida State can move the ball against. The Seminoles average 33.2 points per game and run for 194 yards per game behind Ousmane Kromah, and Ashton Daniels has shown he can push the ball downfield, throwing for 377 yards at Alabama.
Florida State has also been more competitive than its record suggests. The Seminoles are 3-2, with a 27-24 loss to SMU and a 50-36 loss at Alabama. They’ve won their last two, including a convincing win over Virginia last week. Mike Norvell’s team has an offense that can trade scores, and in a game with a total of 58.5, that’s what it should come down to.
The honest risk is Florida State on the road. The loss at Alabama was the Seminoles’ 12th consecutive road loss dating back to 2023, and their own pass defense ranks 125th nationally. Lincoln Kienholz has thrown for more than 300 yards three times this season, and Louisville averages 287.4 passing yards per game. If the Cardinals get rolling through the air, this can get away. But Louisville’s defense has given up at least 27 points in each of its three losses, and Florida State has the offense to keep pace.
Realistic outcomes: Louisville 31, Florida State 28 (3-point margin, FSU covers +4); Florida State 30, Louisville 27 (FSU wins outright); Louisville 34, Florida State 30 (4-point margin, push); or Louisville 38, Florida State 27 (11-point margin, doesn’t cover). Two of four scenarios cover for Florida State and one pushes.
The Pick: Florida State Seminoles +4
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