Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskers
Saturday, October 10, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Memorial Stadium
Indiana is a 7.5-point road favorite over Nebraska with a total of 51.5. My play is the Cornhuskers getting the points.
This is a battle of unbeatens, and the home team is getting more than a touchdown. Both teams are 5-0, and the numbers are closer than this spread suggests. No. 6 Indiana averages 44.2 points per game and allows 10.8. Nebraska averages 43.6 points per game (10th nationally) and allows 14.2 (15th). Laying 7.5 on the road against a team with nearly identical scoring numbers is a lot to ask, even of Curt Cignetti’s program.
Nebraska’s defense matches up with how Indiana wins. The Hoosiers are a run-first team, averaging 252.6 rushing yards per game (9th nationally) and just 173.4 through the air. Nebraska’s pass defense ranks 23rd, allowing 165.2 yards per game, and its run defense gives up just over 100 yards per game. If the Huskers can hold Indiana’s ground game somewhat in check and make Josh Hoover beat them through the air, Indiana’s scoring drops well below its season average.
Nebraska’s offense can keep up. Matt Rhule’s team, now in his fourth season, has put up 49 on Ohio, 56 on Bowling Green and 31 at Michigan State, and it averages 231 rushing yards and 244.6 passing yards per game behind quarterback Anthony Colandrea and running back Isaiah Mozee. This is a balanced offense, and playing at home in front of a Memorial Stadium crowd for a top-10 matchup, the Huskers should be able to put up 20-plus.
The risk is Indiana’s defense. The Hoosiers allow just 237.8 yards per game (4th nationally) and 64.4 rushing yards per game, and they’ve given up only six touchdowns in five games. Hoover is coming off a 20-of-27, 251-yard, four-touchdown day against Rutgers, and Indiana piled up 593 yards in a 47-15 win. If Indiana shuts down Nebraska’s run game the way it has everyone else’s, this could get away. But Rutgers is a far easier test than an unbeaten Nebraska team at home, and 7.5 points gives the Huskers plenty of room in a game that should be close throughout.
Realistic outcomes: Indiana 31, Nebraska 27 (4-point margin, Nebraska covers +7.5); Indiana 28, Nebraska 24 (4-point margin, covers); Indiana 34, Nebraska 27 (7-point margin, Nebraska covers by 0.5); or Indiana 35, Nebraska 21 (14-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Nebraska.
The Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5
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