Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, October 11, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Acrisure Stadium
Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point home favorite over Indianapolis with a total of 44.5. My play is the Over.
Colts games have been shootouts. Two of Indianapolis’ four games have topped 60 points: a 41-23 loss to Baltimore in the opener and a 33-30 overtime loss in Kansas City. The Colts are allowing 26 points per game and scoring about 25.5, so this offense can keep pace, and the defense can be scored on. Jonathan Taylor has six rushing touchdowns through four games, including two in last week’s 30-13 win over Washington in London.
Pittsburgh’s defense is leaking. The Steelers have allowed 24.7 points per game over the last three weeks. Their 27-24 Thursday night loss to Cleveland showed why: poor tackling and coverage breakdowns let Deshaun Watson complete 24 of 33 passes for 268 yards. Things may get worse before they get better. Defensive lineman Derrick Harmon is on injured reserve, and starting cornerback Jamel Dean is dealing with an ankle injury that could keep him out multiple games.
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Aaron Rodgers gets a favorable matchup. Indianapolis ranks 24th in defensive DVOA and in the bottom third against the pass. Mike McCarthy has Rodgers pushing the ball downfield more than he did a year ago. Rodgers’ average depth of target sits above 9 yards to start the season. A Pittsburgh offense that just put up 24 on a good Cleveland defense should find room against this secondary.
The schedule helps Pittsburgh’s offense. The Steelers played Thursday in Week 4, so they come in on extra rest. The Colts are coming home from London without a bye, and it’s a short week of preparation for a road game. A tired road defense is a good recipe for points.
Taylor keeps the Colts in it. Indianapolis converts 75% of its red-zone trips, sixth-best in the league. Pittsburgh’s run defense has allowed the sixth-highest yards per carry since Week 2. Even if the Steelers control the game, the Colts have a clear path to touchdowns instead of field goals.
The risk is the Colts’ last two games. Indianapolis beat Houston 19-17 and Washington 30-13, and both stayed under this number. If the Colts lean on Taylor to shorten the game, possessions dry up. But Pittsburgh’s defense is a lot more beatable than Houston’s, and both teams have the playmakers to reach the mid-20s. A 27-21 type of game gets there.
The Pick: Colts/Steelers Over 44.5
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