Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, October 11, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Nissan Stadium
Houston is a 6.5-point road favorite over Tennessee with a total of 39.5. My play is the Titans getting the points.
Houston hasn’t covered once. The Texans are 0-4 straight up and 0-4 against the spread. They’ve lost close games to Indianapolis (19-17) and Dallas (34-30), and the market keeps pricing them like the team that won nine straight last season. Laying a touchdown on the road with a team that hasn’t won a game is a lot to ask.
The Texans’ defense is the problem. Houston was supposed to win with defense this season, but it has allowed 109 points through four games, more than 27 per game. Last week Dallas put up 34 in Houston, and the Texans committed 13 penalties for 90 yards. C.J. Stroud threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns in that game, and it still wasn’t enough. When a favorite can’t get stops, big margins are hard to come by.
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Tennessee keeps games close. The Titans are 0-4, but they’re 2-2 against the spread and have allowed 20.8 points per game. Last week they went into Baltimore as double-digit underdogs and lost 24-18. Cam Ward threw for 222 yards and a touchdown, and rookie receiver Carnell Tate broke out with nine catches for 145 yards. Robert Saleh’s defense has been good enough to keep the Titans within a score, and three of their four games have gone under the total.
The risk is Tennessee’s offense. The Titans are averaging 13.8 points per game, near the bottom of the league, and rank second-to-last in total yards. If Ward can’t move the ball, Houston can win this comfortably even on an off day. But the Texans haven’t shown they can put a team away, and a low total makes every point on the spread more valuable. A 20-16 or 23-17 type of game is the most likely outcome, and that leaves room for the Titans.
The Pick: Tennessee Titans +6.5
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