Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 11, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Caesars Superdome
Minnesota is a 1.5-point road favorite over New Orleans with a total of 42.5. My play is the Saints getting the points.
Minnesota’s 4-0 record hides a broken offense. The Vikings rank 28th in EPA per play and 31st in offensive DVOA. They’ve failed to score an offensive touchdown in two of their four wins and have one offensive touchdown across their last three games. Last week against Miami, they went 0-for-3 in the red zone and still won. Brian Flores’ defense and the special teams have carried this team, and a road favorite that can’t finish drives is a shaky bet to lay points.
The Saints can move the ball. Tyler Shough is completing 67.2% of his passes with nine touchdowns and three interceptions, and New Orleans has scored at least 24 points in every game this season. The Saints throw on about 66% of their snaps, fourth-most in the league. Shough gets the ball out quickly, and he’s faced one of the lowest pressure rates in the league against the blitz. That matters against a Vikings defense that ranks first in pressure rate and sacks.
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The trends lean New Orleans. The Saints are 8-2 against the spread over their last 10 games and 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 meetings with Minnesota. The Vikings are 8-2 to the Under over their last 10, which tells you how they win: low scores and close games. In a game priced this tight, the Saints only need to keep it within one point, and a team that has scored 24 or more every week can do that.
The risk is the Saints’ defense. Atlanta hung 45 points on New Orleans in the Superdome on Monday night. The Saints rank last in points allowed per play and 30th in EPA per play allowed. Justin Jefferson is expected back from an ankle injury, and Kyler Murray has a big-play target again. If the Vikings’ offense finally clicks, this could get away from New Orleans. But Minnesota hasn’t shown it can sustain drives, and New Orleans also has the short week to work with: it played Monday, and the Vikings have an early bye after this game.
The Pick: New Orleans Saints +1.5
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