Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Sunday, October 11, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Lambeau Field
Chicago is a 2.5-point road favorite over Green Bay with a total of 44.5. My play is the Packers getting the points.
Chicago is laying points with its backup. Caleb Williams will miss his third straight game with a hamstring strain, so Tyson Bagent starts at Lambeau. He’s been steady: 25 of 34 for 268 yards in last week’s 23-12 win over the Jets. But he threw an interception, didn’t throw a touchdown pass, and the Bears went 2-for-7 in the red zone. Winning a divisional road game at Lambeau takes more than that.
This is a rare spot for Green Bay. The Bears are road favorites in Green Bay for only the third time in the last 30 seasons, and the line has moved toward Chicago since opening at 1.5. Chicago is 3-1 and has won both games without Williams, and that’s earned some respect. But the market is now asking a backup quarterback to win by more than a field goal in one of the toughest road environments in football.
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Jordan Love has kept the Packers afloat. Green Bay is 2-2 after a 17-14 win in Tampa Bay last week. Love threw two touchdown passes and wasn’t sacked once, getting the ball out in about 2.4 seconds. Matthew Golden caught a touchdown, and the defense picked off Jalon Daniels twice. Rookie kicker Trey Smack also hit from 58 yards, so the Packers can get points even when drives stall.
The risk is Green Bay’s offense. The Packers had the NFL’s worst rushing attack through three weeks, and they ran for 86 yards at 3.4 per carry against Tampa Bay. They also went 2-of-10 on third down in that game. Chicago’s ground game is moving the other way: Kyle Monangai ran for 146 yards last week, and the Bears ran 89 plays to the Jets’ 32. If Chicago controls the clock like that again, Green Bay won’t see many possessions. But the Packers’ defense has been opportunistic, and Bagent has to avoid mistakes for four quarters on the road. In a game this close, take the points at home.
The Pick: Green Bay Packers +2.5
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