Houston Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats
Saturday, October 10, 2026
2:30 PM CT, Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Kansas State is a 2.5-point home favorite over No. 20 Houston with a total of 54.5. My play is the Cougars getting the points.
Kansas State’s run defense is the matchup to attack. In its last game, the Wildcats gave up 270 rushing yards in a 31-26 home loss to Cincinnati. The Bearcats barely needed to throw: JC French IV completed 8 of 13 passes, and Cole Tabb and Gi’Bran Payne did the rest on the ground. K-State has had a bye week to fix it, but a defense that got run over at home is hard to trust as a favorite.
Houston brings the kind of offense that can exploit it. Conner Weigman is a dual threat, and he proved it last week. Houston trailed UCF 17-0 in the third quarter, and Weigman scored three second-half touchdowns, two of them on the ground, to lead a 27-17 comeback. He threw for 239 yards and ran for 50 more despite being sick, according to Willie Fritz. The Cougars are 4-1, ranked 20th, and just showed they can win a game they had no business winning.
Kansas State’s offense runs through Avery Johnson, and it has been pass-heavy. Johnson threw 50 times against Cincinnati, completing 30 for 292 yards and a touchdown, and it still wasn’t enough. The Wildcats are 3-1 and 0-1 in the Big 12. If Houston forces Johnson to beat them through the air again, the Cougars’ defense has a good chance to get stops.
The risk is Houston’s slow starts. Spotting UCF 17 points worked once, but it won’t work twice on the road in Manhattan. K-State also gets the extra week of preparation, and a home crowd that hasn’t seen its team since a loss will be loud early. But with the spread under a field goal, Houston only needs to keep it close, and the Cougars have the better quarterback and the better recent form. I’ll take the points with Houston.
The Pick: Houston Cougars +2.5
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