UCLA Bruins at Oregon Ducks
Saturday, October 10, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Autzen Stadium
No. 13 Oregon is an 11.5-point home favorite over No. 21 UCLA with a total of 58.5. My play is the Bruins getting the points.
UCLA has been one of the best stories in college football. The Bruins are 4-0 and 2-0 in the Big Ten under first-year head coach Bob Chesney, and they’re scoring 44.8 points per game while allowing 18.8. Their last time out, they went to Maryland and won 54-3. This roster has already shown it can win on the road against conference competition.
The run game drives everything. UCLA leads the nation at 7.0 yards per carry, ranks among the top five in rushing yards per game, and is tied for the national lead with 18 rushing touchdowns. Wayne Knight, who followed Chesney from James Madison, has 445 yards and nine touchdowns on just 49 carries. Against Purdue, Knight, Anthony Woods and Jaivian Thomas combined for 315 yards and four scores on the ground. A team that runs the ball that efficiently can shorten the game and keep a double-digit spread within reach.
Chesney has already given Oregon problems. He coached James Madison in last year’s College Football Playoff, and the Dukes lost 51-34 in Eugene but covered as 20.5-point underdogs. He’s familiar with Dan Lanning’s defense and with what it takes to hang around at Autzen.
The risk is Oregon’s offense. The Ducks average 47.5 points per game, and Dante Moore has nine touchdown passes without an interception. Oregon is 4-0 to the Over, and it just won 41-27 at USC. If this turns into a track meet, Oregon has the firepower to pull away late. But Oregon has also allowed 23.2 points per game, and UCLA has the most efficient running game in the country. Nico Iamaleava doesn’t have to win this with his arm. He has to keep the chains moving and let Knight work. A 38-30 type of game is the likeliest result, and that’s a UCLA cover.
The Pick: UCLA Bruins +11.5
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