Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, October 10, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Bryant-Denny Stadium
Alabama is a 1.5-point home favorite over Georgia with a total of 52.5. My play is the Bulldogs getting the points.
Two unbeaten teams meet in Tuscaloosa, and the line has flipped. No. 2 Georgia opened as a 3-point favorite, and No. 6 Alabama is now laying 1.5 after a 56-23 win at Mississippi State. That’s a 4.5-point swing on one result. Georgia has been the more complete team all season, and getting points with the Bulldogs is the value side.
Georgia’s defense is the biggest edge in this game. The Bulldogs allow 13.4 points per game and 57.4 rushing yards per game, third-best in the country, and they haven’t given up more than 20 points in any game. That forces Alabama to win through the air with Keelon Russell. To be fair, Russell has been excellent: 71.2% completions, 1,414 yards, 11 touchdowns and two interceptions. But a one-dimensional offense against a defense this good is a hard way to win.
Georgia also starts fast. The Bulldogs have outscored opponents 70-7 in the first quarter, and Kalen DeBoer is 1-7 at Alabama when trailing at halftime. Georgia’s 51.4 points per game is inflated by Tennessee State and Western Kentucky, but its average margin of victory, 32.5 points, is the best in the nation. Gunner Stockton threw three touchdowns in last week’s 38-14 win over Vanderbilt, and Georgia handled Alabama 28-7 in last year’s SEC Championship Game.
The risk is Alabama’s offense. The Tide rank first nationally in offensive success rate, and DeBoer has won two of the three meetings with Georgia, including 24-21 in Athens last season. Alabama has also allowed just 6.4 points per game after halftime, so if the Tide lead early, Georgia will have trouble catching up. But in a game this close, the side getting points with the better defense is the right play. Georgia’s ability to take away the run gives it the edge, and the Bulldogs can win this outright.
The Pick: Georgia Bulldogs +1.5
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