Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, October 11, 2026
4:25 PM ET, State Farm Stadium
Detroit is a 5.5-point road favorite over Arizona with a total of 54.5. My play is the Lions to cover.
Dan Campbell’s teams answer losses. Detroit is 15-3 straight up and 13-4-1 against the spread as a favorite coming off a loss under Campbell. The Lions are coming off one now, a 32-26 loss to Carolina in Week 4 that dropped them to 2-2. When this team gets punched, it usually punches back the following week.
Detroit has owned this matchup. The Lions are 5-0-1 against the spread in the last six meetings with Arizona. They also bring an offense with Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, and the Over has hit in all four Lions games this season. That’s a lot of firepower for an Arizona defense that just gave up 36 points to the Giants.
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Arizona’s offense can’t keep up. The Cardinals are 1-3 in Mike LaFleur’s first season, with a rebuilt roster after releasing Kyler Murray in the offseason. Jacoby Brissett ranks 22nd in adjusted EPA per play, and Arizona has the league’s worst explosive-play rate on offense. They opened with a win over the Chargers, but they’ve lost three straight since, scoring seven against Seattle and 24 in last week’s 36-24 loss to the Giants. Against a Lions team that can score in bunches, the Cardinals need big plays they haven’t been able to create.
The risk is Detroit’s recent covering record. The Lions are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games, and the market has made them pay for laying points. The Under has also gone 4-1 in the last five meetings between these teams, so this matchup hasn’t always produced the shootout the total suggests. But Arizona’s offense is too limited to trade scores with Detroit for four quarters, and the Lions’ bounce-back history is too strong to ignore. Detroit wins this by a touchdown or more.
The Pick: Detroit Lions -5.5
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