Kansas Jayhawks at Utah Utes
Saturday, October 10, 2026
8:15 PM ET, Rice-Eccles Stadium
Utah is a 15.5-point home favorite over Kansas with a total of 51.5. My play is the Jayhawks plus the points.
Laying more than two touchdowns against a Big 12 opponent is a lot to ask, even of a Utah team that has been excellent. The Utes are 4-0, they’ve covered every spread, and their defense allows 10.3 points per game, one of the best marks in the country. But the market has already started to come off this number. Utah opened at -16.5 and has dropped to -15.5, and the total has slipped from 52.5 to 51.5 even with most public tickets on the Over. A big spread paired with a falling total is a good recipe for an underdog cover.
Kansas comes in playing its best football of the season. The Jayhawks beat Middle Tennessee 55-0 last week and outgained the Blue Raiders 706-136, a program record for total offense. They ran for 480 yards. Sophomore quarterback Isaiah Marshall threw for 161 yards and a touchdown and ran for 110 more, and Dylan Edwards added 137 yards and three scores on the ground. That snapped a two-game losing streak, and both losses came against quality opponents: Arizona State in London and a Missouri team that has since beaten Florida.
The Kansas defense keeps games manageable. The Jayhawks allow 17 points per game, which ranks in the top 20 nationally. Lance Leipold’s group doesn’t need to win this game. It needs to keep Utah from running away with it, and a defense that limits big plays combined with a run game that can shorten the clock is the right formula for that.
The risk is Utah’s defense. The Utes have been suffocating, and they just went into Ames and controlled Iowa State, with Wayshawn Parker running for 174 yards and two touchdowns. If Utah takes away the Kansas ground game, Marshall will have to win from the pocket, and that’s a tough task on the road at night. But a 15.5-point spread leaves Kansas plenty of room to lose and still cash. A 31-17 type of game is the most likely result, and that’s a Kansas cover.
The Pick: Kansas Jayhawks +15.5
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