Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos
Thursday, October 15, 2026
8:15 PM ET, Empower Field at Mile High (TNF)
Seattle is a 2.5-point road favorite over Denver with a total of 42.5. My play is the Under.
Broncos games don’t produce points. Denver is 4-1 to the Under this season, and last week’s 23-17 win over the Chargers was typical. The Broncos gained 224 total yards and threw for just 118, and the defense won the game by forcing three turnovers. Bo Nix and Sean Payton’s offense moves methodically, and when the defense is the best unit on the field, the scoring stays low.
Seattle’s offense has its own limits. The Seahawks rank 29th in rushing EPA and have been without Jadarian Price, their Week 1 starting running back. A Seattle offense that can’t run has to throw, and Denver’s defense showed again last week how well it takes the ball away. The Seahawks turned it over four times in Sunday’s 32-29 loss to San Francisco, and that kind of game is what pushed Seattle’s Over record to 3-2.
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The short week helps the defenses. Both teams played Sunday, so this is a four-day turnaround with limited practice time. Offenses lean on their base plays in this spot, and both of these teams are built around defense. Mike Macdonald’s group is one of the best in the league, and the Broncos just held the Chargers to 237 total yards.
The risk is turnovers and Denver’s secondary. Pat Surtain II missed last week and is questionable again, along with Riley Moss and Talanoa Hufanga. If Denver’s top corners can’t go, Seattle’s passing game gets easier looks. Seattle’s last game went for 61 points largely because of its four turnovers, and short fields can push any total over. But Denver’s offense doesn’t create many big plays on its own, and a 20-17 type of game is the most likely outcome. That stays under 42.5.
The Pick: Under 42.5
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