RBD’s new Wrong Favorite model has gone 4-1 so far. Tonight it points to Florida International plus the hook at Jacksonville State.
Florida International at Jacksonville State
Prediction and Analysis
Last week I made note of a new model I was working on. It’s based on a situational spot I use in bowl games and a negative vs a positive number in an offbeat category.
It worked well in the Bowls, so I thought I’d try it on regular season games.
I gave out 16 Bowl games that qualified with a note that two of them had conflicting stats that said play AGAINST them and should be eliminated.
Of the remaining 14 games the record was 10-4.
That’s a very solid 71% play ON spot.
It was my first season trying this model in the Bowls so I thought I’d give it a shot in the regular season starting last week.
Five games qualified.
On Thursday, Ark State was the Wrong Favorite against South Alabama, laying -2′.
Final score, South Alabama 56 Ark State 49.
The Dog covered SU and ATS.
On Friday, Utah State qualified as the Wrong Favorite, laying four points to Washington State.
Final score, Utah state 17 Washington State 16.
The Cougars were ahead in the fourth quarter but ended up losing late.
Missed a SU win but covered ATS.
Going into Saturday the play was 2-0.
Not a lot of data but being that it was also successful in the bowls I shared all three plays that qualified on Saturday:
The Wrong Favs were Virginia, Ok State, and Army.
The play went 2-1.
Unfortunately the only one I bought and recommended was UCF +10′.
The game was tied at halftime and close going into the fourth quarter but a Q4 turnover scoop and score gave the Cowboys the cover as UCF lost by 14 points.
A bad job at picking by me. With three spots open I should have just played them all, rooting for a 2-1 at worst case.
And I would have gotten it.
Still, not a bad week for college football as I went 2-1.
Tonight, one game qualifies.
Jax State has a negative number against Florida International’s positive number, and the qualifying stat that seals the deal – Jax State is the Fav.
The game opened at Jax State – 3 and isn’t likely to move so I’m buying Fla Int now at -105.
Looking at standard stats I see:
Fla Int is 3-2 both SU and ATS.
On the Rd they’re 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS.
Jax St is 4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS.
At Hm they’re 3-0 SU and ATS.
None of those stats favor my play today.
As a Fav, Jax St is 3-1 ATS.
As a Dog, Fla Int is 1-1, with the loss coming by a hook.
Neither of those stats favor my play tonight either. But if handicapping was as simple as picking the team with the better stats, bookies would be out of business.
(And I’d have a lot of extra free time on my hands.)
Last season, Head to Head, the Panthers won 27-21. So I’ve got that going for me.
There have only been five games that qualified in this new spot, but with a record of 4-1 I’m going to ride it this weekend and hope to bank a few units.
Starting tonight.
It’s not going to be easy though.
This is Jacksonville State’s 4th year in the FBS, and they’ve only lost three home games in that time.
But I don’t need them to lose, as long as they win by only one or two points I’m okay.
The Panthers have a top 10 defense, surrendering just 14.5 PPG. Looks good, right?
Yeah, sure, until you check Strength of Schedule where they’re sitting at 125th out of 138th teams ranked.
Still, you can only play the teams that are on your schedule. Doesn’t mean they won’t be successful when they start facing tougher teams.
And seeing that Jacksonville State is ranked at 117 for SOS the Panthers rating doesn’t scare me off the buy.
My play:
Fla Int +3
Recap: 2-1
Record: 11-11
Review: I’ll have a full review of my college plays and NFL in my weekly Rant and Review article, which will be up Tuesday or Wednesday.
And, being that I bet on Washington in the NFL you KNOW there’ll be some ranting
