Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, October 18, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Raymond James Stadium
The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2.5-point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with the total sitting at 39.5. My play is the Buccaneers +2.5.
One sideline has a 42-year-old future Hall of Famer. The other has an undrafted rookie out of Kansas who was supposed to be holding a clipboard. Give me the kid and the points.
Tampa’s record is lying to you. The Bucs are 1-4, but their four losses came by a combined 20 points. That’s not a bad football team. That’s a team that kept coming up one play short. They finally closed one out in Dallas on Thursday night, 24-16, with Jalon Daniels starting for Baker Mayfield, who is out with a thumb injury. Todd Bowles has said Daniels is the plan again, and the kid played like he belonged: 19 of 25, a touchdown, and no turnovers.
The run game isn’t a one-week fluke. Tampa piled up 241 rushing yards against the Cowboys, and Bucky Irving had 165 of them. Yes, Dallas tackles like it’s wearing oven mitts. But the Bucs rank seventh in EPA per rush on the season, meaning their ground game has been adding real value all year. Pittsburgh sits 20th in the same stat on defense. Expect Bowles to keep feeding Irving and let Daniels pick his spots with his legs.
Pittsburgh hasn’t figured out the road. The Steelers are 3-2, but 0-2 away from home, with three points in Foxborough and 24 in a loss at Cleveland. They also haven’t won back-to-back games yet this season, and Nick Herbig said as much this week: “We’ve got to stack them now.”
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Rodgers is cooking, but with whom? Aaron Rodgers has thrown three touchdown passes in three straight weeks, the first Steeler ever to do that within the same season. Respect. Still, his receiving room is getting thin. Michael Pittman Jr. is on injured reserve, and Roman Wilson and Ben Skowronek are both out, so it’s DK Metcalf, rookie Germie Bernard and Pat Freiermuth carrying the load.
They’ll be facing a Tampa defense that ranks fifth in EPA allowed per play. In plain English, the Bucs don’t give up much on a snap-by-snap basis. Pittsburgh’s passing game ranks 26th by the same measure, a lot closer to the basement than the Rodgers highlight reel would suggest.
The rest edge belongs to Tampa. The Bucs played on Thursday, so they get ten days to prepare for this one. Pittsburgh is on a normal week and getting on a plane.
Where this goes sideways. Rodgers eats young defensive backs for breakfast, and Tampa’s best safety, Antoine Winfield Jr., is doubtful with a rib injury. Bowles knows the danger: “He can beat you with his arm, he can beat you with his brain and do a lot of things.” The Bucs have only six sacks all season, so if they can’t move Rodgers off his spot, he’ll get comfortable fast. Daniels also has three interceptions on 55 career throws, and Pittsburgh’s defense just held Jonathan Taylor to 45 rushing yards. Then there’s Bowles himself, whose fourth-and-goal gamble in Dallas nearly turned a 14-point lead into a coin flip.
I’ll live with all of that at +2.5. If it hits +3 anywhere, grab it. If it drops to +1.5 or lower, I’d rather take the Bucs on the moneyline, which sits around +120 right now.
Projected score: Buccaneers 20, Steelers 17. Irving grinds the clock down, Daniels makes two or three plays with his feet, and Tampa’s defense keeps Rodgers checking it down all afternoon.
The Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
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