Ole Miss at Texas
Saturday, October 24, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Texas is a 3.5-point favorite over Ole Miss, and the total is 53.5. My play is Ole Miss +3.5.
Six weeks ago, Texas came back from 20 points down in the fourth quarter to stun No. 1 Ohio State. Since then the Longhorns have lost two straight by a combined six points, people are asking about their quarterback’s job, and the nation’s sack leader has a high-ankle sprain. The market has noticed. This line opened Texas -9.5 and has been sliding toward Oxford all week. I don’t think it’s done.
Texas can’t get out of its own way with the ball
Start with the stat that tells you the most: Texas goes three-and-out on 34.3% of its drives, the worst rate in the SEC. That’s a talented offense that can’t string first downs together. By value gained per snap, the Longhorns rank 114th in the country. Plenty of yards, very little efficiency.
The Florida loss summed it up. The Gators came in with the SEC’s worst-ranked defense and still held Texas under 300 yards, sacked Arch Manning five times and forced the fumble that ended the game. AP’s postgame line was blunt: Manning struggled for the fourth straight game. “We didn’t play good football today. Kind of bled out,” Steve Sarkisian said.
Then Monday’s reports had backup KJ Lacey getting more first-team work. Sarkisian didn’t bite (“First team reps every week, he gets his first team reps”), but when the head coach has to answer that question in late October, the offense has a problem.
Take Colin Simmons away and the math flips
The Texas defense is legit. It allows 4.15 yards per play, second-best in the country, and it’s the reason the Longhorns have lost by three twice instead of by 14. But the engine of that defense is edge rusher Colin Simmons, who leads FBS with 10.5 sacks and 16 tackles for loss. A source told Horns247 he has a high-ankle sprain and is expected to miss this game. The official SEC availability report comes Wednesday night.
Now look at who Texas is trying to pressure. Ole Miss has allowed five sacks in six games, the fewest in the SEC, and Trinidad Chambliss gets pressured on just 18% of his dropbacks. Take the best pass rusher off the field against the conference’s cleanest pocket and Texas has nothing to wreck the game with. A true freshman, Richard Wesley, is next up, and he doesn’t have a career sack yet.
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Chambliss and the Rebels arrive on a heater
Ole Miss just beat No. 13 Missouri 31-3 and out-rushed the Tigers 257 to 39. Kewan Lacy ran for 122 and Makhi Frazier for 101. That’s a scary sign for a team whose identity has been Chambliss throwing all over people. He has a touchdown pass in 19 straight games, and the Rebels stay on schedule as well as almost anybody, ranking eighth nationally in the share of plays that keep the chains moving.
Then there’s the red zone. Ole Miss has been inside the 20 24 times this season and scored all 24 times, 21 of them touchdowns. In a close game in a hostile stadium, the team that turns trips into seven usually leaves with the money. Pete Golding’s group is also the only team in the country with three wins over AP-ranked opponents, so the moment shouldn’t rattle it.
The case against me
The Ole Miss defense is the shaky part. It ranks outside the top 100 in success rate allowed, and the Rebels’ only loss this year came on the road, and it was ugly: Florida ran for 302 yards in a 52-28 beatdown in Gainesville. If Texas finally finds a run game, this could turn into a long night. Manning is too talented to stay in a slump forever, and the defense is good enough to steal a game by itself. And Kewan Lacy isn’t 100%. He’s been playing through a shoulder injury that already cost him a game, and he got banged up again against Missouri.
Price matters too. You missed the best of this number; it was 9.5 at the open. At +3.5 you’re paying -115 to -120 juice. I still like Ole Miss at +3, which you can find at a fair price. Below that, it’s a lean, not a bet.
I’m siding with the clean pocket, the better quarterback form and the team that’s actually scoring touchdowns right now. I think Ole Miss wins it outright, but I’ll take the points for insurance.
Projected score: Ole Miss 27, Texas 24
The Pick: Ole Miss +3.5
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