LA Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder
Sunday, October 25, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Paycom Center
The Thunder are 15.5-point favorites over the Clippers with a total of 221.5, and my play is Thunder -15.5 (-110).
Here’s a fun wrinkle for a Sunday in October: Oklahoma City is likely to own the Clippers’ 2027 first-round pick. So every time the Thunder beat Los Angeles this season, they win twice. That’s motivation you don’t have to manufacture, and it lands on a Clippers team that keeps handing the ball to whoever’s standing closest.
The giveaway problem. The Clippers are averaging 22 turnovers through two games. They coughed it up 26 times in Friday’s 125-117 loss to the Lakers, and Darius Garland had a career-high nine on his own. Garland has been their best player, but Tyronn Lue didn’t let him off the hook. “He’s the head of the snake, and he has to take care of the basketball, score the basketball, and also get guys involved,” Lue said.
Now picture that same careless group walking into the building where loose balls go to die. Oklahoma City led the league in points off turnovers last season, and Denver gave the Thunder 22 more turnovers on Thursday. Through two games, OKC is giving up under 96 points per 100 possessions. League average is about 112. That’s a defense that turns your mistakes into layups on the other end before you’ve finished complaining to the ref.
Yes, SGA was human for a night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s NBA-record run of 141 straight 20-point games ended Thursday when he went 6-for-19 for 17 points. He shrugged it off: “God willing, I have many more games to start on a streak. So, it’s not the end of the world.” I’m not worried about a guy who dropped 32 in San Antonio two nights earlier. I’m definitely not worried about him against the franchise where his career started, which now trots out a rebuilt roster minus Bradley Beal, Brandon Ingram and Max Strus.
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A franchise in teardown mode. This Clippers team barely looks like last year’s. Kawhi Leonard is in Toronto after the league found the club guilty of salary cap circumvention. Steve Ballmer is serving a one-year suspension, and the team was stripped of five future draft picks as part of the penalty. What’s left is young, scrappy and fun. Rookie Keaton Wagler can play, and 38-year-old Brook Lopez is still burying threes. But it’s thin, and it’s playing the second game of a stretch with four of five away from home after a Friday night game in Los Angeles. The Thunder have been home since Thursday.
History isn’t on the Clippers’ side either. They’ve lost nine straight in Oklahoma City, and their last road win over the Thunder came in March 2020. OKC has swept the season series in each of the last two years.
How this blows up on me. Fifteen and a half is a lot of points, and OKC’s offense hasn’t caught fire yet. The Thunder shot 11-of-43 from three against Denver, and a cold night like that keeps a game within reach. The Clippers also shoot it well when they hang onto the ball, and Garland can heat up from deep. A late backdoor three in garbage time is the classic way a spread this big gets away. If Garland cleans up the turnovers, the Clippers can hang around.
I don’t think he will. The Clippers lose the possession battle by a mile, and the Thunder have every reason to keep their foot down. I’d lay it up to -16.5.
Projected score: Thunder 117, Clippers 99. OKC turns turnovers into a long, quiet night for the visitors.
The Pick: Thunder -15.5 (-110)
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