Orlando Magic at New York Knicks
Sunday, October 25, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Madison Square Garden
The Knicks are 7.5-point favorites over the Magic with a total of 224.5, and my play is Under 224.5 (-110).
Five days ago, the Garden was a party. Rings, a banner, Jalen Brunson in gold sneakers. Now the Knicks are the first defending champs to start 0-2 since the 2011-12 Mavericks, and the vibe in the building Sunday will be a lot closer to a film session than a parade.
Mike Brown didn’t blame the shooting, he blamed the screens
The Knicks have shot poorly, no question. The NY Post had them at 40.8% across the two losses, and Brunson went 6-for-19 on ring night. But Brown didn’t sound worried about the jumpers after the 107-103 loss in Boston. He was angry about effort at the point of attack.
“They set a screen, and we lay on the screen, don’t fight to get through it,” Brown said. He also tied the 18 turnovers in Boston to Boston simply being more physical. That’s 30 giveaways in two games, per Field Level Media, and that’s the stuff a coach fixes by slowing everything down and grinding.
Brown is already doing the math, too. The Knicks grade themselves in five-game chunks, and he said anything worse than 3-2 means “nobody is reaching their potential.” An 0-3 start would put that out of reach by Sunday night. Expect a team that wants to win ugly and doesn’t care how it looks.
New York’s first two games finished with 206 and 210 total points. This group played at one of the five slowest paces in the league last season, per Basketball Reference, and nothing about this week says that’s changing.
Orlando just lost its offense, and it already couldn’t shoot
Paolo Banchero is out with what the Magic called a low-grade right high ankle sprain, confirmed by MRI. ESPN reported that most players miss four to six weeks with this injury. That hurts a lot. Banchero was making 69.6% of his shots through two games, per the team’s own numbers, and he had 35 points and 10 assists in the opener.
Take him away and look at what’s left. Orlando has made 21 of 79 threes (26.6%) this season, and Desmond Bane has started 4-of-19. The Magic shot 20.5% from deep in the 115-93 loss to Minnesota and scored just 93 points with Banchero playing part of that game. Anthony Black is questionable with an ankle sprain, and Jonathan Isaac, Noah Penda and Izaiyah Nelson are all out.
To be fair, the Magic’s tracking data says they’re getting plenty of open threes. Those looks get tougher when the guy drawing double teams didn’t even make the trip, per the Orlando Sentinel.
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Why I’m not laying the 7.5
The Knicks side is tempting, but a team that has turned it over 30 times in two games is hard to trust giving more than a touchdown. A total in the mid-220s is a different story. You need a slow, mad home team trying to clean up its defense to score enough against a short-handed road team with a cold shooting stroke. Franz Wagner can get his, and Wendell Carter Jr. has been sneaky great at 16-of-19 from the field, but somebody else has to make a shot from outside.
The betting public sees two big names, a big building, and one team desperate to break out, and they’re pounding the Over. Betting-percentage data shows more than nine of every ten tickets on it. The number hasn’t moved up, though. It’s sitting at 224 to 224.5. When that much money comes in on one side and the line stays put, I’m happy to take the other side.
How this blows up on me
Orlando gives up offensive rebounds by the bushel. The Magic have allowed a league-high 16.5 per game, per the team. If Karl-Anthony Towns and Andre Drummond turn that into a parade of putbacks, the Knicks could score 120 by themselves. Brunson is also too good to keep shooting like this, and one hot night from him or Miles McBride (6-of-8 from three in Boston) can push this past the number. Check Black and Jose Alvarado (questionable, ankle) before tip.
Projected score: Knicks 112, Magic 102
The Pick: Under 224.5 (-110)
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