New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors
Monday, November 9, 2026
10:00 PM ET, Chase Center
Golden State is laying 9.5 at most books and the total sits at 231.5. My play is Over 231.5.
What happens when a team that just gave up 139 points has to turn around 24 hours later and chase Stephen Curry? I’m betting we find out on the scoreboard.
The Pelicans’ defense left something in Los Angeles
Sunday night was ugly for New Orleans. The Clippers, who walked in on a seven-game losing streak, hung 39, 35 and 37 points on the Pelicans over the final three quarters of a 139-123 rout, per the team’s own postgame wrap. It was the first time all season New Orleans allowed more than 126 in regulation. Now it’s the second night of a back-to-back, and Hoop Dossier estimates the Pelicans have logged more than 2,000 miles of travel over the last week. Missing Yves Missi (knee) doesn’t help the rim protection either.
Here’s the thing: the Pelicans can still score with anybody. Trey Murphy III had 26 in that loss, and Jeremiah Fears and Zion Williamson added 25 each. New Orleans plays at one of the fastest paces in the league and is scoring 120.5 points a night, second-most in the NBA. Overs have cashed in seven of their 10 games by my count against the closing numbers. Fast pace, tired legs on defense, and a lineup that still puts up points is a recipe for a track meet.
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Curry is cooking, and the bench is short
The Warriors have won seven straight after an 0-3 start, and the team says they’re the first club to do that since the 1950-51 Celtics. Curry is the reason. He’s averaging 33.8 points on a 73.3% true shooting mark during the streak, which basically means he’s scoring like a guy who only takes layups, except he’s pulling up from 28 feet. He dropped 41 on Orlando Saturday, 19 of them in the fourth quarter and overtime. Yaxel Lendeborg is giving him real help at 21.2 points per game.
The defensive depth behind them is thin. Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody and Will Richard are all out on the official injury report. That’s a lot of size and perimeter defense sitting in street clothes, and it means more minutes for the shooters. Golden State takes 47.1% of its shots from three, and a high-volume three-point team facing a gassed defense is how totals jump.
Where this goes sideways. Steve Kerr’s team plays at a slower clip than New Orleans, and the Warriors can grind when they want to. Dead legs cut both ways: if the Pelicans’ shooters are flat, they could fire blanks for long stretches instead of trading baskets. A blowout is also possible, and garbage time can get sloppy in either direction. New Orleans hadn’t filed its injury report overnight, so check it before tip-off. I’d play this up to 233.
Projected score: Warriors 123, Pelicans 114
The Pick: Over 231.5
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