Miami Heat at Utah Jazz
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
9:00 PM ET, Delta Center
Miami is a 9.5-point road favorite over Utah with a total of 228.5 at most books. My play is Under 228.5.
The Jazz walked off the floor in Minneapolis on Sunday with their eighth straight loss, their leading guard nursing a sprained ankle and their best forward in street clothes. Now they get a Heat team trying to close a five-game Western swing with something left in the tank.
Utah can’t buy a bucket, and the cupboard just got barer. The Jazz own the second-worst offensive rating in the league at 104.4 points per 100 possessions, per Basketball Reference, ahead of only Charlotte. That was with Keyonte George. He scored 19 in three quarters against the Wolves before spraining his right ankle, and he’s out tonight. Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) and Jusuf Nurkic (foot) are out too. Lauri Markkanen, who sat Sunday with a sprained right wrist two nights after hitting eight threes in Dallas, is questionable.
So who scores? Rookie Darryn Peterson put up 26 in Minnesota, but Utah opened the fourth quarter of that game 0-for-9 and got held scoreless for almost four minutes. That’s the floor for this offense when the shots stop falling, and the floor is low.
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Miami’s offense is better than its numbers, but not by enough. The Heat won 114-108 in Sacramento on Sunday behind 23 points from Klay Thompson and 29 from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is probable with a sprained right wrist. They needed 18 made threes to get there, and their offensive rating for the season sits at a pedestrian 111.7. Giannis went 1-of-7 at the line against the Kings, which is not what you want to see from a guy nursing a wrist.
This is also the last stop of a road trip that ran through both LA teams, Golden State and Sacramento. Tired legs mean short jumpers, and I’ll bet on those clanking more than usual.
The market nudged this total up a point from 227.5. Utah’s games have averaged about 224 combined points, and tonight’s Jazz lineup is thinner than the one that produced that number. Run the two teams’ efficiency and pace numbers together and you land a few points under the number before you even account for who’s missing.
Here’s where I’m vulnerable. Miami plays as fast as anyone in the NBA, tied with Atlanta for the league’s fastest pace at 102.6 possessions per 48 minutes, and its defense has been leaky, allowing 116.8 per 100. Heat games have gone off like fireworks at times, including a 145-125 win over Indiana. If Markkanen suits up and gets hot again, Utah can hang 110 on anybody. And a blowout can bring a garbage-time sprint from the benches.
I’ll still trust the shorthanded team with the second-worst offense to keep this one in the low 220s.
Projected score: Heat 115, Jazz 106
The Pick: Under 228.5 (-115)
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