Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
Tuesday, November 10, 2026
11:00 PM ET, Moda Center
Oklahoma City is a 2.5-point road favorite over Portland with a total of 226.5 at most books. My play is Trail Blazers +2.5.
Quick question: how many teams can lose Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace and still go 8-2? One. That’s the problem with betting against Oklahoma City, and it’s also why this number is a touch too rich.
The Thunder have been absurd. They’ve won four straight, including a 114-75 demolition of Washington on Saturday in which Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 30 with nine assists. They allow 104.2 points a game, fewest in the league, and Basketball Reference rates their defense the best in the league per possession. SGA is averaging 29.9 a night, and Ajay Mitchell is adding 18.9 as the No. 2 option.
But this is a depleted roster on the road against a good team. Holmgren (knee), Williams (ankle) and Wallace (shoulder) are all out, and Jaylin Williams and Thomas Sorber are day-to-day. The rim protection and secondary creation that made this team a monster are thinner than the record lets on.
Portland can shoot its way out of a bad weekend
The Blazers are coming off a rough couple of nights. Luka Doncic dropped 53 on them in Los Angeles on Friday, and Victor Wembanyama needed just 24 minutes to put up 29 in a 125-103 Spurs rout at Moda Center on Saturday. Two stars, two losses. Neither of those guys is walking through the door tonight.
Strip out the weekend and Portland has been one of the West’s most dangerous offenses. The Blazers score 119.3 points per game, third in the NBA, and they rate 119.4 per 100 possessions. They let it fly, too, with 15.1 made threes a night. Deni Avdija (22.3 points, 6.3 assists) is driving the bus, Damian Lillard is chipping in 19.4 a night, and Donovan Clingan is pulling down 10 rebounds a game. They’ve done it without Ja Morant, who’s out with a hamstring strain, along with Shaedon Sharpe and Vit Krejci.
Rest is even. Both teams last played Saturday. Portland also gets backup big Robert Williams III back tonight, and he’s likely to sit Wednesday’s rematch, since the Blazers hold him out of one end of back-to-backs.
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Why the number is a little off
Blend the two teams’ efficiency numbers, OKC at plus-8.1 per 100 and Portland at plus-5.5, give the Blazers a normal home-court bump, and you get something close to a coin flip. The market opened Oklahoma City at -1.5 and pushed it to -2.5. I don’t mind taking that extra point with the home team that can shoot.
The case against me: Portland is somehow 1-2 at home and 5-1 on the road, and the Thunder defense has made good offenses look silly. If SGA lives at the line and OKC’s length chases the Blazers off the three-point line, Portland’s turnover habit, about 17 a game, gets ugly in a hurry. This is a lean more than a hammer. The edge is real but small.
Projected score: Trail Blazers 114, Thunder 112
The Pick: Trail Blazers +2.5 (-115)
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