Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs
Friday, November 13, 2026
9:30 PM ET, Frost Bank Center
San Antonio is a 12.5-point favorite at most books, with the total at 220.5 (some have 219.5). My play is Under 220.5.
Who scores for Golden State now? Stephen Curry was averaging 30.6 points a night, third in the league, before grabbing his right side early in the first quarter of Wednesday’s loss in Houston. The Warriors announced an oblique tear, and he’s out at least two weeks. Now the patched-together Warriors walk into the building of a team that has won 10 straight, ranks fifth in the league in defense, and has Victor Wembanyama waiting at the rim.
Golden State’s offense without its engine
The Warriors were second in offensive rating on Basketball Reference coming into this game, with an effective field-goal rate that ranks second too. Most of that was Curry. In Houston, the offense that was left was rookie Yaxel Lendeborg (25 points), Brandin Podziemski (22) and a lot of misses. NBC Sports Bay Area’s Monte Poole noted that the bench managed 34 points on 10-of-30 shooting before a meaningless late flurry. Al Horford went 1 for 7 in his first start. Georges Niang went 1 for 7.
The injury list doesn’t stop at Curry. The official league report has Jimmy Butler III (ACL rehab), Moses Moody and Kristaps Porzingis out too. That’s a thin rotation for a team that already ranks 24th in pace.
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San Antonio’s defense is built for this
The Spurs are 10-2 with a plus-11.2 net rating, second-best in the NBA. Their defense allows 108.8 points per 100 possessions, fifth in the league, and they hold opponents to the sixth-lowest effective field-goal rate. Wembanyama is averaging 30.2 points and 11.7 rebounds, and San Antonio ranks third in defensive rebounding, so a short-handed team that misses shots won’t get many second chances.
San Antonio isn’t a track team either. It ranks 22nd in pace. Put two below-average-pace teams together, take away the league’s third-leading scorer, and 220 asks a lot. The public doesn’t see it that way: Action Network shows over 90% of tickets on the over. When that many tickets pile onto one side of a total, I’m happy to take the other one.
Why I could be wrong
The Spurs can score. They’re fourth in offensive rating, and they put up 124 in Chicago on Wednesday after trailing by 22. If Wembanyama gets going early and the bench plays a loose fourth quarter in a blowout, San Antonio could reach 125 alone. De’Aaron Fox (hip) and Devin Vassell (adductor) are both questionable, and their status matters for the Spurs’ offense either way. And the Warriors still shoot 40% from three as a team. Lendeborg and Podziemski could catch fire against a defense that has to scramble.
Still, I’d rather bet on the Warriors struggling to score than on them shooting their way through Wembanyama.
Projected score: Spurs 116, Warriors 101
The Pick: Under 220.5
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