MLB Picks

Nola’s 6.03 ERA against Junk’s contact management creates tension the -102 line hasn’t absorbed. The breakdown is inside.

Skubal’s 45 strikeouts in 43.1 innings faces Boston’s strikeout-prone lineup at steep -230 chalk. The analysis is inside.

Leiter’s strikeout dominance meets Holton’s bloated 1.923 WHIP at even money. The breakdown is inside.

Bubic’s command advantage meets Castillo’s struggling 6.35 ERA at plus money for Kansas City. The pick is inside.

Kay’s 6.12 ERA and alarming home run rate face Canning’s superior command in a pitching mismatch. The pick is inside.

Holmes’ .350 xwOBA suggests harder contact coming against the Angels’ superior offensive metrics — the analysis is inside.

Messick’s 1.73 ERA faces Civale’s 3.23 mark while the market prices this like a coin flip. The pick is inside.

Strider’s slider dominance meets Coors Field chaos where -174 feels too steep. The analysis is inside.

Boyd’s strikeout dominance meets Kelly’s command issues in a pitching gap that justifies the steep Cubs price. The pick is inside.

May’s 5.28 ERA against Wrobleski’s 1.50 mark creates a mismatch the -144 line undervalues. The pick is inside.

Mahle’s 5.87 ERA and command issues create opportunities for Tampa Bay’s patient offense in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. The breakdown is inside.

Luzardo’s dominant sweeper meets Paddack’s hittable arsenal after Miami’s 4-0 shutout yesterday. The pick is inside.

Bolton’s command breakdown creates traffic against Boston’s selective lineup while the +130 run line underprices this edge. The pick is inside.

Burns vs Ashcraft is a clearer mismatch than the run line implies. The full read is inside.

Baltimore’s .233 team batting average creates real problems against Fried’s elite stuff. Find out which way this one goes.