Bryan Bash

Houston leads the country with a measly 8.2 turnovers per game, while Arizona is forced to adapt without Koa Peat’s 13.8 points per night. Given the efficiency gap and Arizona’s thinned rotation, taking the Cougars as our ATS pick makes the most sense in a Fertitta Center environment where the home team rarely beats itself.

Michigan meets Duke on a neutral floor with the nation’s two best defenses colliding. The #1 Wolverines are 2.5-point favorites over the #3 Blue Devils in a matchup that comes down to elite efficiency versus elite execution.

Merrimack’s laying 4 points at home against Siena in a MAAC battle between 18-9 teams separated by just 0.2 points in adjusted net efficiency. The Warriors are perfect at home, but the Saints’ superior offensive rating and rebounding edge create value on the visitor in a projected 63-possession grind.

Miami’s #1 ranked effective field goal percentage (62.4%) meets a Bowling Green defense that ranks 68th nationally in efficiency. Given the efficiency gap, taking the RedHawks as our ATS pick makes the most sense as they look to extend their 15-game home win streak.

While VCU is 6-2 on the road, they haven’t faced a scoring machine like Saint Louis, which averages 95.0 points per game at home. The rebounding disparity is exactly why we’re locking in this ATS pick before the 7:00 PM tip-off on ESPN2.

Akron heads to Ball State laying 14.5 points in a MAC clash, and while the 27.7-point net rating gap screams blowout, the Cardinals have covered five straight in this series by grinding the pace to a crawl. Bash breaks down why the market might be right to show Ball State some respect.

Oakland’s laying 6 against Green Bay in a Horizon League matchup, but the efficiency numbers suggest this spread is light. With Oakland ranking #74 in adjusted offensive efficiency against Green Bay’s #312 defense, the Golden Grizzlies’ pace and rebounding edge should carry them to a comfortable home victory.

The market is overvaluing home court for an Iona team that has failed to cover in four of their last five outings. Saint Peter’s defensive aggressiveness is the X-factor, making them Bryan Bash’s best bet to pull off the road “upset” in New Rochelle.

The market is overreacting to Marist’s recent slump, but the talent gap hasn’t changed. Manhattan’s defense is one of the worst in the country, making the Red Foxes Bryan Bash’s best bet to walk into Draddy Gymnasium and secure a multi-possession cover.