UAB sits as a small favorite against Memphis in an American Athletic Conference grinder. The efficiency numbers say these teams are nearly identical, but the Blazers’ defensive edge and home court could be the difference in a low-possession battle.
Bryan Bash
76ers vs Lakers Prediction: Philly’s Five-Game Win Streak Meets West Coast Test
The Lakers lay 4 points at home against a surging Sixers squad riding five straight wins, but Embiid’s questionable status creates uncertainty. Bash breaks down why Philadelphia’s rebounding edge and Maxey’s All-NBA play make the points too valuable to pass up.
William & Mary vs. UNCW Prediction: Track Meet vs. Trask Trap
William & Mary travels to face UNC Wilmington in a CAA rematch with UNCW laying 4.5 points at home. The Tribe already won this matchup three weeks ago, and the efficiency numbers suggest they’re the better team despite the records. This tempo clash between the 6th-ranked pace team and a grinding Seahawks squad creates betting value on the road dog.
Warriors vs Suns Prediction: Curry’s Load Gets Heavier in Phoenix
Golden State’s roster looks more like a G-League squad after the Butler injury and Kuminga trade rumors, yet the market is only giving them 6.5 points. With Grayson Allen and Dillon Brooks leading the charge for a Booker-less Suns team, this game will be decided by the role players. Read our full betting preview to see why the free pick lands on the home favorite.
Penn State vs. Michigan Pick: Can No. 2 Wolverines Cover a Massive Spread?
Michigan lays 24.5 points against Penn State in a matchup that pits the nation’s #1 adjusted net efficiency against a Nittany Lions team that’s lost four of five. The efficiency gap and interior dominance make this spread look justified.
Texas A&M vs. Alabama Pick: Efficiency Mismatch vs. Bucky Ball Momentum
Alabama lays 7.5 at home against Texas A&M in an SEC showdown featuring two elite offenses. The Crimson Tide’s pace and efficiency advantages should overwhelm the Aggies’ porous defense despite Texas A&M’s four-game winning streak.
Notre Dame vs. Louisville Prediction: Will the Irish Fold Under the Cardinals’ Tempo?
Louisville lays 17.5 at home against Notre Dame in an ACC matchup that looks like a mismatch on paper—and the efficiency numbers confirm it. The Cardinals rank 9th nationally in adjusted net efficiency while the Irish have dropped four of five, including three double-digit road losses. Bash breaks down why the tempo advantage and defensive gap make this number look right.
Pelicans vs Bucks Prediction: New Orleans Favored Against Giannis-Less Milwaukee
The Pelicans are 5-point road favorites against a Bucks team missing Giannis Antetokounmpo. But Milwaukee’s shooting efficiency and New Orleans’ dismal road record create a tighter matchup than the spread suggests.
UCF vs. Houston Pick: Tempo Control and the Perimeter Battle
Houston’s laying 14.5 points at home against UCF in a classic style clash between the Knights’ elite offense and the Cougars’ suffocating defense. Bryan Bash breaks down why this number might be too high for a Houston team that doesn’t score enough to comfortably cover big spreads.
Grizzlies vs. Kings Prediction: Exploiting a Shorthanded Sacramento Frontcourt
Every game is a “rebuild” game for Memphis now, but they still own a massive season-long rebounding advantage. Sacramento’s leaky defense faces a Ty Jerome-led backcourt that just put up 137 on Minnesota. Check out Bash’s 2-unit best bet to see if the Grizzlies can pull the road upset against a sinking Kings ship.