Joe Jensen

Everyone’s hammering Dodgers’ -1.5, but Washington has covered 8 of last 11 runline meetings between these clubs. With Gore’s 2.89 ERA against Kershaw’s comeback, history suggests a different outcome tonight.

Cleveland brings a top-5 bullpen (3.42 ERA) to Sacramento, yet sits as +1.5 underdogs against the Athletics’ struggling relief corps (4.87 ERA). The disrespect doesn’t add up when examining Bibee’s consistency.

Astros are 28-13 against losing teams but struggling on the runline lately. Angels getting +1.5 with MLB’s highest strikeout rate facing Brown’s 10.9 K/9 looks awfully tempting. Bookmakers want us backing Houston, but something doesn’t add up here.

Reverse line movement on Diamondbacks-Rockies has my attention. When the public zigs and the line zags, smart money usually knows something. Gallen’s 5.19 ERA at hitter-friendly Coors doesn’t add up with the strengthening Arizona line.

When Brewers and Twins meet, it’s usually a tight pitcher’s duel at Target Field. Tonight’s +136 runline suggests the oddsmakers haven’t caught on to Joe Ryan’s 2.41 home ERA against rookie Misiorowski’s control issues. The mismatch screams opportunity.

Sharp money is all over this Reds-Cardinals matchup for good reason. The total of 8.5 tells a story the public isn’t seeing yet with Singer (4.34 ERA) and Pallante (4.83 ERA) both struggling with command.

Everyone’s hammering the Phillies, but the Mets have covered 7 of their last 10 runline meetings between these clubs despite rotation woes. Wheeler’s 1.65 ERA vs. NYM tells a different story under the radar tonight.

Reverse line movement on Braves-Marlins has my attention. Despite Atlanta sweeping the Mets, the line barely moved from -140 to -143. When the public zigs on the hot team but the line barely zags, sharp money usually knows something under_radar.

Orioles come in hot, but Yankees’ pitching dominance at home changes everything. Fried’s 1.89 ERA against Baltimore’s road struggles (16-23) doesn’t add up with this total. The books might have missed something here.

Detroit Tigers’ road dominance meets Tampa Bay’s home struggles tonight. With Tigers getting +1.5 runs at -155, the books might be overlooking Flaherty’s strikeout potential against a Rays team fanning 8.47 times per game. Something doesn’t add up.