Joe Jensen

The books want Phillies -1.5 at +115, but Luzardo (10.6 K/9, facing former team) against struggling Quantrill (5.61 ERA) tells a different story. Miami’s gone 5-16 vs lefties while Philly rides a five-game win streak. This line screams value.

The books want Dodgers hype, but Ohtani (1-2 innings) vs. Cease (4.28 ERA, 11.4 K/9) creates an interesting dynamic, especially with Padres getting +1.5 runs on the road. This line screams bullpen battle.

The public loves Boston after sweeping the Yankees, but Seattle is 22-13 at home with Gilbert (2.37 ERA) returning. The line movement toward Mariners -135 and Under 7.5 screams sharp money. Something doesn’t add up.

The books favor Tampa (-125), but Zach Eflin (6-2, 4.08 ERA) facing his former team against Pepiot (3-6, 3.31) creates an interesting dynamic, especially with Baltimore riding a three-game win streak. Something about this AL East matchup screams value hiding in plain sight.

Schmidt’s 3.60 ERA visits Bronx, where Angels have been getting zero respect despite Soriano’s 3.86 ERA and solid peripherals. This line screams “overreaction to recent sweeps.” Read on to see who our capper is betting.

The historically bad Colorado Rockies (14-57) face the Washington Nationals (30-41) on Monday, with Jake Irvin’s steady pitching creating a massive edge over Carson Palmquist’s disastrous 7.77 ERA. See who Joe is betting inside with his top picks.

The public loves Miami’s Alcantara, but the former Cy Young winner has a ghastly 7.14 ERA while rookie Abel (2.35 ERA) shines for the surging Phillies. With Philly 18-16 on the road against Miami’s 14-20 home record, this line screams opportunity.

It’s the deciding game between the Giants and Dodgers. Our prediction explains who has the advantage in this huge rivalry game at Dodger Stadium tonight. Get Joe’s top picks inside.

Our Cardinals-Brewers pick is targeting a road underdog with a better offense. See why St. Louis (+106) is the sharp side in this divisional clash.

Can the Twins steal a win in Houston? Brandon Walter’s 1.64 ERA against Woods Richardson’s 5.74 road ERA tells a different story. With the Twins going 4-10 vs lefties and Astros 18-6 as big favorites, this runline screams value opportunity.