Discipline – the Difference Between WINNERS and LOSERS
It’s often said that over 90% of all sports bettors lose.
Some estimates have it as high as 95%. Regardless of which number is correct, I’d wager that almost 100% of the reason behind losing is a lack of discipline.
The lack of discipline that sports bettors display comes in various forms.
Most common, and the worst, is chasing.
There are three types of chasing: increasing the dollar amount of your standard wager, doubling down, and adding games that weren’t part of your daily schedule.
Increasing Your Bet Size
The morning games are over, scores are in, and you have a loss for the day. Your standard bet was laying -$110 to win $100.
You decide to go to -$220 to win $200 for the afternoon games.
Mistake.
NEVER alter your bet size.
Your goal is to finish above 53%. When you alter the size of your wagers you make it more difficult to hit that goal. Yet it’s the most common mistake that bettors make.
You see it in Forum Land all the time. Bettors wagering different amounts, saying things like, 1* on Dallas -3, 3* on San Fran -7, 5* on Miami +4.
This puts the bettor in a position to go 2-1, winning with Dallas and San Fran but losing money on the day because the Dolphins don’t cover. In other words, his handicapping brings him a 67% win rate but a loss on the day.
Does that make any sense to anyone?
Yet, many bettors vary their bet size anywhere from 1* to 10*.
It’s amateurish. It’s foolish.
And some people never learn.
Doubling Down
This is the worst mistake any bettor can make.
Just about all of us have made it at least once, but hopefully not more than once.
You lost -110 on each of your two morning games.
You lost your three afternoon games.
You’re down $550 on the day.
So what do you do – DOUBLE DOWN on Sunday night Football. It’s aAl game that wasn’t even on your card when you mapped out your bets for the day. But hey, you have a chance to get back your $550, right?
Wrong.
It happened at the beginning of my sports betting experience (in my early twenties), when I actually bet on baseball.
This was during the time when Vegas still had a monopoly, no online betting existed, we used local bookies.
Here’s how it worked. The week started on Sunday and ended on Monday.
Whatever you won or lost had to be picked up or paid off on Wednesday.
I didn’t have a bad week, I was only down about $100.00. But I didn’t want to pay it.
Monday afternoon had Dave Stieb on the mound for the Blue Jays. I didn’t want to have to pay the $100 so I bet on Toronto.
For those of you who don’t know him, Stieb is the greatest picture in Toronto history.
Toronto was battling for first place, their opponent had a losing record.
It looked like an easy play to me.
With Toronto at home and their Ace on the mound the price was -220.
I laid enough on the game to get back the $100 I was down for the week.
I don’t have to tell you what happened, do I?
On Wednesday I knocked on my bookies door and handed him $320.
Lesson learned.
And I never repeated the mistake.
Adding Games
Example – it’s a typical NFL Sunday. Before the first game kicks off you should know which games you’re betting on, and the reasons for your bets. If you have a losing day don’t add the Sunday night game if it wasn’t already on your betting schedule. You’ll just be asking for trouble.
Set Goals and Work in Windows
One final word on discipline. This is a practice most bettors don’t even consider – set goals, work in windows. Windows meaning standardized time periods such as a week, with the goal being to finish the time period with a profit, ANY profit.
Most bettors make a deposit and play until their balance gets to zero and then they re-up.
They set no goals.
Work in weekly windows.
Use a typical work week, start on Monday, end on Sunday.
You know why bookies typically work on a week that starts on Sunday and ends on Monday? Because they know many if not most bettors lack the discipline to not chase.
They end the week on Monday because there’s only one game left on the football card, Monday night Football.
And they know that people who lost (remember, 90-95% of sports bettors lose) are going to want to cut into their losses by betting on Monday night Football.
Take a minute to look at the logic of it.
You had 50 college games to choose from on Saturday, and 14 games on a standard NFL Sunday. Breaking down the Sunday possibilities you have 14 Favs, 14 Dogs, 14 Overs, and 14 Unders to choose from.
With all that choice, you STILL had a losing week.
And now you’re going to bet on a game that wasn’t on your original schedule for the week??!!
A single game that offers you very little choice, one Dog, one Fav, one Over or Under.
The bookies have you right where they want you. Desperate, and with little choice.
That’s WHY they end their week on Mondays.
If you have a profit from Saturday’s college games, make sure to not bet it all on Sunday’s NFL. Set your goal of finishing the week with a profit and be disciplined enough to shut down your play to make sure you hit your goal.
Practice the disciplines noted above and you better your chances of avoiding being part of the 90-95% of losing sports bettors.
