Sports Handicapping 101 – How To Turn Around a Losing NFL Season

Years ago a friend of mine stopped by my place to begin our weekend of heading to the Jersey shore to do some bird dogging (ie: womanizing, bikini hunting, digging for clams.)
He starts to get into his car, I start to get into my car.
He says, “Dude, let’s take my car. My Porsche costs twice as much as your Corvette.”
And I said, “Yes. But girls who are smart enough to know a Porsche costs twice as much as a Corvette are, by definition, not our targets for this weekend.”

Without a word, he closed the door on his 911 and climbed in the passenger side of my Stingray.

This is an example of analyzing the situation ahead and making the best decision to achieve your goal.
The goal for sports betters is simple – don’t lose your money, end your season with a profit.

I finished the WNBA with a profit.

I finished the CFL with a profit.

I’m currently kicking ass in college football with enough units banked already that there’s no way I won’t finish with a profit.

I’m 4-1 in the NBA and 16-7 in college basketball.

But I’m struggling in NFL.
My NFL regular season web page articles have a record of 9-10.5.
Forum picks are 3-3.
The only thing keeping my head barely above water is that I went 3-0 in the preseason, giving me a little cushion to add to my bankroll for the regular season, making my overall NFL record 15-13.5.

Regular season I’m 1.5 games under .500 so this morning I’m analyzing my NFL play and trying to figure out my best path towards finishing strong.

To see where my wins and losses are coming from I broke down my NFL plays.
Here’s what I have, all picks:
Prop bets: 2-4
Teasers: 0-1
Favs: 10-6
Dogs: 0-1.5
Overs: 0-1

The prop bets (2-4) and teaser loss came early in the season. I already eliminated those from my play.

I’m 10-6 on Favs, 62%. I should use more of those.

One other thing stands out to me while looking at my data – I need to stick to my systems!!!
My bets on Denver and Atlanta from Week 1 were not system plays.
Denver in Week 2 was a revenge bet against the Steelers for beating me in Atlanta in Week 1 (and remember – revenge is not a reason to bet.)
The six prop bets and the one teaser are not plays that come from the various handicapping methods I use.
The record on these plays is 2-6.5. Remove them, and I’m at 10-7.
The lesson here – stick to what you know, stick to what works.

One other thing pops out at me from looking at the data. I’m surprised to see that I don’t have any Unders. Historically, they’re my most profitable plays.
I’m using two methods for picking totals this season.
One of them is 14-8 Ov, 9-10 Un.
The other is 7-3 Ov, 3-3 Un.
I now have an understanding as to why I’m not making money on what are usually my strongest plays. I have no edge on Unders in either system.
But I do see a 63% edge on one method for picking Overs and 70% on the other.
I need to incorporate a few of those into my buys. Unfortunately I only have one game to choose from this week, Az at Seattle is in the 7-3 spot. But the total is 47’and only eight of their twenty games have gone over that number this season, so I’ll pass and wait until next week, and I’ll hopefully have more and better options to choose from.

If you’re having a winning season, congrats. If you’re struggling, do a breakdown of your play to see what works for you and what doesn’t.
And use that information to your advantage.

With six weeks left in the season I have plenty of time to reach my goals. Hopefully starting this week with . . . the Tampa Bay Bucs.
Why?
Because…

WNBA 2-6
NFL 2-8
College football 9-15
NBA 3-5
College basketball 2-9
Combined 18-43, a 43-18, 70% Fade with over 60 games charted across TWO sports and FOUR different leagues.
Yes, the Stupid Asterisk Play.
With overall numbers like the ones above how do I NOT play it??!!
It’s 43-18 all sports.
It’s 2-8 in the NFL. That’s 80%.
I repeat – How could I NOT play it??!!

Taking Tampa Bay this week means laying six points on the road.
Looking at recent play I see that the Bucs have lost six of their last eight and four straight. Ugly numbers for sure.
Betting on a team who has lost four straight is not an enviable position.
Betting on them on the road is even less enviable.
And betting them as favorites on the road is asking for trouble, especially with a number that’s over a field goal.
But if you’re not playing well, you can’t ask for a better remedy than the Giants. New York is just 2-8 SU on the season and are on a five-game losing streak themselves.

Digging deeper into that 2-8, the Giants are whatever the opposite of perfect is at 0-5 SU at home. They’re 1-4 ATS at home.
The Bucs are 3-1 ATS on the road.

Looking at recent play, yes Tampa Bay has lost four straight, but against solid competition. KC and Atlanta are division leaders, and Baltimore and San Fran are just one game out of first place in their divisions.
The Giants on the other hand have losses to 4-7 Cincinnati and 3-7 Carolina, mixed in with losses to quality teams like Pittsburgh, Washington, and Philadelphia.

Unfortunately, Tampa Bay won’t be facing Daniel Jones at QB. New York’s handing the ball over to Tommy DeVito this week.
I predicted Jones would be benched in my August 10th article recommending a Buy on New York Giants Regular Season Wins Under 6′, but I’m not claiming to be Nostradamus, EVERYBODY knew Jones would stink again this season (well, everybody but the Giants management team apparently.)

DeVito was third on the QB depth chart, but he somehow leapfrogged over 2nd stringer Drew Lock to replace Jones in this game. No one has ever accused the Giants leadership of knowing what the hell they’re doing and moves like this are the reason why. It’s bad enough they wasted the number six pick in the 2019 draft on Jones but for some inexplicable reason they gave him a contract extension last year, well after everyone knew he couldn’t cut it in the NFL.
In an interview this week, Drew Lock himself questioned giving DeVito the start. Though he served up all the usual platitudes about supporting the team’s decision and supporting his fellow QB DeVito yadda, yadda, yadda, he was clearly unhappy about the move. And he was not the only Giant who spoke out publicly. Defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence also questioned the team’s motives, stating there may be contractual/financial factors leading to the benching of Jones. And you know how, as a bettor, I LOVE dissension and distractions in the locker room.

In six starts last year, DeVito went 3-3.
The wins came against 4-6 Washington, 2-8 New England, and 6-6 Green Bay.
The losses came against 3-5 Las Vegas, 5-3 Dallas, and 6-7 New Orleans.
Yes, I’d prefer Jones, but I’m not too worried about DeVito. In games he started last year, the Giants lost by 24 points, 32 points, and 18 points, all enough to cover the spread in this one.

I don’t see the Giants beating the Bucs (then again, it’s hard to see the Giants beating anyone) and TB getting Baker Mayfield’s top receiver Mike Evans back certainly isn’t going to hurt.

My only concern on this pick is that Tampa Bay seems to be an almost unanimous pick, it’s way too popular with the public for my taste. But I’ll stick with my numbers, ESPECIALLY when it’s the (I’m not saying the name again. I’m getting very tired of saying it, and writing it. But the little bastard keeps winning so what are you gonna do?)

When to Buy Recommendation
The line opened at a ridiculously underpriced TB -1 at a few houses before quickly rising to -5’/-6, and I’m cursing myself for not doing my NFL handicapping earlier in the week, before I did my college work, so I could have gotten a better line than the current -6.
I doubt it’ll go to a full TD, -7, more likely sharps who got in at the opening number will do a buyback affording them a 3-4 middle possibility. I see a few -5′ still available, but -6 is the common number readily available to most betters, so that’s what I’ll use here.

This week’s play:

TB -6

Recap: 0-1
Record: 9-10.5
Review: Green Bay came in flat at Chicago and barely escaped with a 1 point win. The loss is on me, of course. I did my research but somehow missed the fact that Chicago had a new offensive coordinator. It probably wouldn’t have been enough to make me change my bet, but if you’re going to put your money out, you need to see every angle on the chessboard, and I missed that one.