RBD targets another QB situation with a sharp betting pick, breaking down St Louis vs Orlando with line movement and situational analysis.
St Louis at Orlando
UFL Pick and Analysis
From yesterday’s article:
“Birmingham reminds me of the Kansas City Chiefs last season. Every week, bettors thought this would be the week the Chiefs would return to form and start winning.
And every week they let bettors down, continuing to lose.
Same thing with this Birmingham team.
People keep expecting the old Stallions team to show up, but instead they get the Ponies.
This week it seems the bookmakers finally caught on to the fact that the Birmingham team who won a couple championships is gone.”
The books may have caught on to the fact that Birmingham stinks, but Joe public didn’t.
The line opened with DC as Rd Favs -6.
Early money (“smart” money as it turns out) came in on DC and the line climbed to -7.
On game day, late money (“stupid”money as it turns out) came in on the Hm team and the line dropped down to as low as -5′.
HOW DOES ANYONE BET ON A TEAM WHOSE
STARTING QB HAS ONLY BEEN ON THE TEAM FOR SIX DAYS??!!
First possession for DC?
TD.
Following possession, first for Birmingham?
INT.
I wrote in the article that it was a bet I made based on “gut feel.”
It was really based on common sense.
How does anyone bet on a team whose QB etc, etc.
Orlando covered the spread by double digits, and it wasn’t even that close as their field goal kicker missed two attempts.
Birmingham QB Thompson-Robinson actually didn’t look too bad despite two interceptions.
He was 28-43 for more than 300 yards and 2 TDS.
With another week of practice under his belt he’s only going to get better and I may take a hard look at taking Birmingham next week, when they’ll be sure to get an inflated line after losing again.
Last night’s bet was a play against the QB, and that’s what I’m coming right back with today.
St Louis traded this week for a new QB, Luis Perez.
Unlike Birmingham, the Battlehawks won’t be foolish enough to start a QB who has had very little practice time with the team.
But put yourself in starting QB Harrison Frost’s shoes.
How is his confidence going into today’s game knowing his team just traded for his replacement?
How much additional pressure will that put on him?
Making matters worse, it’s a Rd game.
Both of St Louis’s wins have come at Hm.
Both of St Louis’s losses have come on the Rd.
They lost at Dallas, 31-15.
They lost at DC, 28-22.
And one of their two Hm wins came against Birmingham, who, as noted above, stinks.
The line opened at Orlando -3.
If I was a knucklehead and believed there’s such a thing as “trap lines” I’d say this game qualifies.
It should be higher.
Proving my point, some houses have put extra juice on and some have added the hook, but you can still get Orlando at our sponsors at the original opening line.
My play:
Orlando -3
Recap: 1-0
Record 6-4
Review: Got the win with DC yesterday.
And I learned something interesting.
In my week one UFL article, I mentioned a new rule about no punts allowed inside your opponents 50 yard line.
You have to either go for it on 4th down or kick a long field goal.
And I wondered,
“What if a team is on their opponent’s 49 and doesn’t have a good field goal kicker, and it’s fourth and waaay long – why not just take a false start penalty to push it back onto your side of the field so you can punt?”
Yesterday, Birmingham was just inside DC’s 50 yard line.
And they had a penalty.
The announcers said,
“Even though they’re on their own side of the 50, the new rules state that a penalty does not wipe out your obligation to either go for it on fourth down or attempt a field goal.”
Which is how Birmingham found themselves having to go for it on 4th and 21 from their own 41 yard line,
which is how DC found themselves with great field position after new QB Thompson-Robinson got sacked.
In DC converted the opportunity into points for me.
I like the new rule.
