Boxing Betting Tips
by Scotty L of Predictem.com
Welcome to the Predictem.com boxing betting tips page! Here you will find some key tips that should enhance your boxing wagering experience as well as increase your odds of putting a knock out on your bookie!
Tip #1: Never write off a fighter because you never heard of him: A few years ago, I bet on a wildly popular and successful fighter named Jorge Arce. His opponent, Cristian Mijares, was unknown. I jumped at Arce at 235, making him a slightly less than two-and-a-half to one favorite. I dont think Arce won more than 2 out of 12 rounds.
Where did I go wrong? I assumed Mijares was not up to par based solely on the fact that I never saw him fight. I discounted the reality that many fighters of immense skill toil in obscurity. There are only so many available TV slots and it stands to reason that there are many diamonds in the rough just waiting for a chance to showcase their abilities.
I also fell into a trap. I expected Mijares to be +400 or +500. The +230 quote should have sent up red flags rather than make me salivate. I thought. How could a longtime stalwart like Arce be such a small favorite over a guy I never heard of? Well, they didnt build Las Vegas by making tasty odds for gamblers. The sharpies who came up with those odds obviously knew something about Mijares that I didnt know. Live and learn.
Tip #2: Focus on Styles: Fighters often have many common opponents. We sometimes make the mistake of using those results as a guide to predicting future fights. Perhaps in no sport is the importance of stylistic match-ups more critical than in boxing. George Foreman, who blew out Muhammad Ali-tormentor Joe Frazier, was expected to do even worse to Ali. We know that didnt work.
When handicapping a fight, you must pay special attention to stylistic concerns. Take Manny Pacquiao, for example. He has been going through recent opponents like a knife through butter. If we think back less than two years ago, however, we remember him struggling mightily with clever counter-puncher Juan Manuel Marquez. His recent opponents bear little resemblance to the crafty Marquez.
If Pacquiao fights another boxer with the same skill-set as Marquez, we should not expect him to be as dominant as he was against the more face-first fighters hes been fighting recently. This is why despite far greater recent form and productivity, Pacquiao opened as an underdog against master boxer/counter-puncher/defensive wizard Floyd Mayweather.
When the old-timers say, styles make fights, they are not whistling Dixie. It is really the guiding light of all successful boxing bettors. If you are betting on a fighter, pay attention to what styles trouble him and then bet accordingly. It can also help you make some successful underdog selections. If a little known and uncelebrated fighter just so happens to have the same style that tends to trouble the favored fighter, it might be worth a tickle.
Tip #3: Do not ignore form: Sometimes we dont acknowledge that a fighter is washed-up until he is thoroughly beaten. The signs were often there long before that. It is very human to lock onto a perception and stick to it despite damning evidence. We remember athletes at their best, and are maybe unconsciously unwilling to notice their demise. To admit your favorite fighters are not what they once were also is saying we are not what we once were. To acknowledge the passing of time is to acknowledge our own aging process.
Do not ignore the signs. We tend to make excuses for fighters who have so thoroughly entertained us. We will often disregard a series of bad performances by chalking it up to poor motivation, a funk, outside-the-ring distractions, or whatever it might be. While fighters are always capable of reversing form, more times than not, a string of bad performances is usually a strong indication that a fighter is approaching the end.
Take Vic Darchinyan, junior bantamweight champion of the world. He was knocked out a few years back, but came back so strongly that fans gave him a pass. Then recently, he moved up in weight and was beaten conclusively. Fans gave him another pass since he wasnt at his best weight, even though jr. bantamweight (115) and bantamweight (118) are about a Happy Meals difference. Then in his last bout, he returned to junior bantamweight to fight an unheralded opponent. He was thoroughly out boxed before landing a fortunate shot to end the fight.
Keen boxing bettors should now be looking for a spot when Darchinyan faces a lesser known, but capable contender for an underdog pick. He struggles against rangy boxers who have a little pop. So while he may be ripe for a loss, one must find the right spot against the fighter with the right style. So if he next fights a stumpy, aggressive fighter, I will be much less inclined to bet against him than if he faced a lanky, tough boxer sort.
Just dont be too hesitant to internalize a fighters fall from grace. Even when Mike Tyson lost to gargantuan underdog Buster Douglas, there were signs of erosion. He had abandoned his style and had become much more ragged. He was having a slew of personal problems that would distract even the most professional athletes, but especially a young kid ill-equipped to handle it. The writing was on the wall. Try to read it before it becomes a headline.
Tip #4: Always shop for the best available odds. Not all bookies are created equal. We’ve seen fights with the favorite at -400 odds and across the street at another online sportsbook they were -300! This is HUGE because if you happen to be betting the fav. in this matchup, you’d be saving yourself $100 just by taking a few minutes to check around to see what the best available odds are! As a general rule of thumb, you will almost always find the best boxing betting odds at:
1. 5Dimes Sportsbook (Offers the lowest prices favorites and highest paying underdogs)
2. Pinnacle Sportsbook (Sorry, they don’t allow USA bettors)
3. GTBets (They are good at getting credit cards to work too)
Never settle for having just one boxing wagering account. Shopping for odds will reduce risk and increase profits! Good luck with your action!