Canelo Alvarez (63-2-2, 39 KOs) vs. Terence Crawford (41-0, 31 KOs)
When: Saturday, September 25, 2025
Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: DAZN
Weight Class: Super Middleweight Championship: 12 Rounds
Betting Odds: Canelo Alvarez (-175), Terence Crawford (+145)—Odds by Bovada
Fight Analysis:
In what might be a superfight for the ages, Super Middleweight Champion Canelo Alvarez battles four-division champion Terence Crawford on September 25 in Las Vegas. For over a decade, these two have been a large part of the boxing landscape, operating in different divisions. With Canelo at 168 and Crawford moving up to 154 recently and both fighters toward the end of their careers, a fight between the two made sense in what should be a financially-rewarding fight where legacies are at stake. Let’s break it down!
One of the more compelling aspects of this fight is the difference in weight of the two fighters. Crawford only had one fight at 154 pounds, in his last fight in August of 2024. He was a longtime champion at 135 pounds, had a run at 140, and won some big fights at 147 pounds. Alvarez made his bones at 154 pounds, but moved up in 2017. He has fought at or above 168 pounds a dozen times. Crawford has fought at 154 just once.
I think the timeline of which divisions each man has fought at is tiresome and that the way to look at it is that Canelo is a 170-pounder and Crawford is a 150-pounder, give or take. They will be close in weight by the night of the fight, but when looking to gauge true size, Canelo is simply the bigger man and by a fairly large margin. When you’re dealing with fighters at this level, it counts for a lot. You have two more-senior longtime stalwarts of the sport in a late-stage legacy-building fight. They’re both utter professionals, as their records and accomplishments would attest. That size gap is a major consideration.
A few more advantages appear to exist for Canelo. One is that Crawford is fighting a bigger guy and his route to a win might be by a decision and beating Canelo on the cards isn’t easy in Las Vegas. And while Canelo has received criticism for sometimes being cagey in the opponents he fights while also catching breaks from judges on occasion, his ledger still reads like a contemporary who’s-who of greats in the sport from welterweight up to light heavyweight. Crawford is no stranger to the limelight and has some huge wins on his record. But in terms of these kinds of super-fights and being acclimated to the highest level of the sport, it’s hard to top Alvarez. He has been in a lot more huge fights and has fought the tougher competition. And at 34, he’s 3 years younger than Crawford.
While older chronologically, Crawford’s path to this spot has been less demanding and he may in fact be a tad fresher than Canelo at this point. And that’s not to besmirch Crawford’s quality of opposition, but is more a testament to his dominance. It’s unusual to see a fighter at 37 without having suffered a defeat and without there even being many times where you felt he would lose. So now a position on Canelo is requiring a major flip in what we’ve witnessed over the years. No one has really gotten all that close.
Some of that applies to Canelo, as well. You might think there were some fights where he got the benefit with the judges and he does have two losses. But he has still fought one big name after the next without you ever really thinking he got really truly beaten up. The losses to Bivol and Mayweather were more clinical decision losses by master boxers. The fights with GGG may have been punishing and you may have felt Canelo was fortunate, but no one has ever gotten that much separation from him any way you want to cut it.
I think Crawford faces some challenges here that will be new to him. And again, he has beaten some standout fighters and earned his spot. But Canelo excels in being very technically proficient, simply a very solid, defensively-responsible fighter where the memories of him being seriously hurt don’t immediately come to mind, despite all those years and years at the top level. And he’s bigger, to boot, making it seem on paper to be a tall task for Crawford.
But while the weights of the fighters in this superfight are screwy and they’re both probably a tick or two past being at their absolute best, there’s a reason this fight is going to generate a lot of interest. And for all of Canelo’s assets, he is also up against it. Sure, he has held his own against a guy like Bivol, who might be one of the best light heavyweights of all time. So now taking on a guy who made his bones all the way down at lightweight might suit him. But Crawford is as slick as goose doo-doo, also carrying with him an underlying strength and doggedness. He’s not a dainty finesse-fighter, but rather a fighter who relies on skills while also being a dog in there. A former high school wrestling star, he is an absolute alpha, something a moderate size discrepancy isn’t going to totally undo.
I think Canelo’s size and how hard it is to beat him on the cards is a tough hill to climb. But I think Crawford can do it. Despite being at his age and with all he has done, this is his first taste at that elite money and a win here sets him up for generational wealth. He has seemingly gotten better over the years and even if he was not at his best in his last fight, he enters this with not a ton of wear and tear. He is versatile and deathly-shrewd in the ring and in the end, I’m going to go with talent and take an underdog position on Crawford.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Terence Crawford to win at +145 betting odds. I think the Bovada line has some value for an undefeated fighter who hasn’t come close to tasting defeat. And sure, beating Canelo in Vegas on the cards might mean you need to win 9 rounds and size isn’t an issue you can just disregard, but I think on this night, Crawford is going to be a hard man to stop in what is his biggest night.
