Canelo vs. Berlanga Prediction & Boxing Picks

Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (61-2-2, 39 KOs) vs. Edgar Berlanga (22-0, 17 KOs)
When: Saturday, September 17, 2024
Where: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: DAZN/Amazon Prime
Weight Class: World Super Middleweight Title: 168 Pounds
Betting Odds: Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (-1600), Edgar Berlanga (+800)—Odds by Bovada

Fight Analysis:

Canelo Alvarez defends his super middleweight titles against contender Edgar Berlanga on September 17 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. These are big events in Vegas—Mexican Independence Day weekend Canelo fights. The support should be gigantic, even if in terms of opponent, Berlanga may be underwhelming in terms of name-value. But he is a big unbeaten contender with aspirations of his own and a fast-track available to him in this fight. What’s going to be the move in Alvarez vs. Berlanga?

Canelo’s exploits are well-known—a long career with about 15 years of it being against world-class opponents with a roster of opponents that reads like a who’s-who in boxing for the past decade-plus between 147-175 pounds. Say what you will, but his record is outstanding, and since losing to Bivol in 2022, he has won four straight, his last being a win over Jaime Manguia in May. He’s not the fresh-faced kid anymore, now a grizzled pro and a veteran of 65 fights.

The X-factor here is the 27-year-old Berlanga, raised in a Puerto Rican neighborhood in Brooklyn, naturally idolizing Felix Trinidad. He had an amateur career of some distinction before turning pro in 2016. Before long, a string of first-round knockouts garnered some attention, and he was 16-0, with all wins coming by first-round KO. Granted, he wasn’t facing world-beaters, but there were a few decent fighters in the lot. Still, when you see that it can go one of two ways—it can either be you have a real beast on your hands who just knocks everyone dead, or it’s a bad sign that a fighter is relying too much on his power and will soon be exposed when he faces someone who knows what he’s doing.

With Berlanga, it’s been neither of those things. He went from one extreme to the other, from winning 16 fights in a row with none lasting 3 minutes to his next five fights, all going the distance. And while he experienced some rocky moments in that stretch, he showed he had the stamina to go the distance and beat some higher-end fighters. He rose up in class and won and, while not the terror he was, showed a different dimension—a professional who can use skill and show toughness while going the distance. His last fight was more characteristic of his prior form—a 6th-round TKO over previously unbeaten Padraig McCrory in February.

Make no mistake, Berlanga is up against it in this matchup in a big way, whether he’s the take-no-prisoners KO artist we saw before or the more-measured and complete fighter we see now. But considering Canelo’s skill and how hard it is to win a decision against him in Las Vegas on Mexican Independence Day, maybe you’d opt for the version of Berlanga, who just lets it fly and goes for it. The guy we saw winning five decisions in a row isn’t winning any decisions from Canelo anytime soon.

Canelo’s record and age almost reminds me of Marvin Hagler, a guy who goes on for years and years being who he is until it’s not him anymore. The age of 34 may not be old from a chronological point of view, but when you turn pro at 14-15 and are being put in tough fights all the way up to 34, it can be old in boxing terms. I think Berlanga has the attitude and ambition in place, while he might not have the ability to exploit Canelo in the event that the Mexican legend is in fact waning. At the same time, if opponents of Alvarez are going to be fetching big odds, it makes sense from a strategic point-of-view to start picking against Alvarez and just figure you’ll soon call it right.

One aspect where I see an angle for Berlanga is his size. Alvarez is pretty boxy and stout for 168 pounds and a lot of his recent opponents were fighters moving up in weight, guys like GGG, Charlo, and Manguia. He has fought some nice-sized super middleweights before, like Billy Joe Saunders and Callum Smith. But we also saw what happened with Bivol when Canelo was schooled by a more-nimble man with superior length.

Berlanga moves well and can go the body. He can lash out with a quick shot and doesn’t have a bad jab when he works behind it. It’s just that there’s nothing that jumps out and says Canelo better mind his Ps and Qs, or he’s in trouble. He doesn’t want to sleep on this guy, but this is still a night where Canelo has a lot of fans to please, and he’s not one to leave them empty-handed. He’s going to be out there looking sharp, continuing to put distance between him and the Bivol disaster.

Although Canelo’s expiration date could be looming, I don’t see this as being a realistic spot for the wheels to come off for the Mexican star. And while the books don’t see it as a total wipeout, a positive stance on Canelo in a traditional “to win” sense leaves a lot to be desired at his -1600 price tag. I still think while Berlanga is dangerous, he’s a little out of his league in this fight. A fight that maybe doesn’t go to decision or into the late rounds might be the ticket. I’m going to go with this fight goes under 8.5 rounds at -120.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:

I’m betting this fight goes under 8.5 rounds at -120. Canelo hasn’t flashed much power lately, going without a stoppage since 2021. But between the aggression of Berlanga and his lack of wherewithal at these rarified levels, I think this sets up for a bout where Canelo looks to end things sooner rather than later. Bet your pick for FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus up to $300 when you enter bonus code PREDICT100 at MyBookie Sportsbook!