Dubois vs. Parker: Heavyweight Showdown – Loot’s Boxing Predictions

Daniel Dubois (22-1, 21 KOs) vs. Joseph Parker (35-3, 23 KOs)
When: Saturday, February 22, 2025
Where: Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
TV: PPV
Weight Class: IBF Heavyweight Title: 12 Rounds

Betting Odds: Daniel Dubois (-240), Joseph Parker (+180)—Odds by Bovada

Fight Analysis:

Daniel Dubois will defend his IBF Heavyweight Title against Joseph Parker on February 22 on the big mega-card from Riyadh. This card will produce meaningful results that will shape the division in the immediate aftermath. Both of these men are vying for super-lucrative fights, something that will be available to whoever manages to come out of this a winner. Both are coming off some big wins. Parker, who held the WBO belt from ’16 to ’18, is coming off a big triumph over Zhilei Zhang, with Dubois having just beaten Anthony Joshua in his last fight. Who can add another notch to his belt to get that much closer to a fight with Usyk for all the marbles?

Still only 33, Parker has shown incredible resolve during his long stay at or near the top of the heavyweight division. He was a world champion during the early years of Deontay Wilder and Anthony Joshua’s reign. A loss to Joshua and then to Dillian Whyte seemed to spell the end of his run. But now here we are all these years later with both Wilder and Joshua on their way out while Parker is still near the top. He was rebuilding well until he lost to Joe Joyce in ‘22, who also beat Dubois, but he enters this with big wins over Deontay Wilder and Zhilei Zhang in his last two, experiencing what many felt was an unlikely late-career renaissance.

Some of that also applies to Dubois, 7 years younger than Parker at 27. A talented guy with undeniable power, a loss to fellow UK contender Joyce slowed his progress, as did a stoppage to current heavyweight kingpin Oleksandr Usyk in 2023. But he showed some things in that fight, including a body shot that was ruled low and may not have been that crumpled Usyk. Regardless, Dubois recovered with a big KO over Filip Hrgovic before flattening Anthony Joshua in the fifth round in September, again making him a man worth watching in the heavyweight division.

In essence, we have two fighters with flaws, guys who have tasted defeat but have continued on undaunted—now on the precipice of big things. This card is an important one for the heavyweight division and those who come out on the sunny side of these fights will have lucrative opportunities looming ahead. And when dealing with two guys who have overcome what these two men have, one is reminded that overlooking either man has its pitfalls.

Neither guy is invulnerable, and even their recent wins show some of the limitations that have kept both from reaching the absolute top. When Dubois stopped Joshua, he almost seemed on the verge of being stopped, and both of his losses were stoppage defeats. And when Parker beat Zhang, he was also down twice. These guys can be hurt, but each has shown the ability to bounce back, sometimes in the same fight.

These men measure up well. At 6’5” with a 78-inch wingspan, Dubois is an inch taller and has a few inches in reach. But he’s not a cutie in the ring, making those edges negligible. I think it’s fair to say that while Parker is a strong puncher, Dubois packs more dynamite in his fists, with all but one of his wins by KO. Then again, Parker may be a bit more durable or, at the very least, more difficult to stop. He’s been fighting top guys for a decade and has been stopped just once.

Parker is a talented boxer. He knows how to put rounds in the bank and navigate his way to a points win in the event his power isn’t the deciding factor. He’s a real pro’s pro, he knows how to win, and does what he needs to do to make it happen. He can eschew the temptation to brawl and please the fans. In his last two fights, against two KO punchers in, Wilder and Zhang, this sort of resourcefulness and skill was on display, as he manufactured nice decision wins against his hard-hitting foes.

That isn’t intended to paint Dubois as some slugger who is banking on his power and nothing else. He had a good amateur career and can go rounds. We’ve seen him recently score some late-round KOs, showing he can get through a long fight and still see his most important asset surface. It’s just that in a fight where there isn’t much separating the two fighters, does Parker’s higher bankability in big fights and being able to thrive in protracted long battles like this carry more weight?

Dubois is a dangerous guy. And his ability to shine later in fights or at times when he’s hurt makes him a KO puncher with some different dimensions. That power and how he has seen it translate at high levels is a big part of why he’s a decent favorite for this fight. If that ends up being the determining factor, no one would have the right to act too surprised. I just feel Parker’s experience, resourcefulness, and ability to stick around in fights will pay off in this matchup. I see Parker having a strong finish, enough to edge a decision win against Dubois. I’m taking Parker.

My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I’m betting on Joseph Parker at +180 betting odds. Facing a massive puncher, his durability is something he’ll need to go a long way in this fight. If it does, his boxing ability and skill in winning rounds could have him in good standing later in the fight, where his late-round bankability and overall dependability make him an interesting underdog pick.