Alabama at Arkansas Betting Insight & Point Spread Pick

by | Jan 11, 2023 | cbb

Alabama (13-2 SU 9-6 ATS) vs. Arkansas (12-3 SU 8-7 ATS)
When: Wednesday, January 11th: 7:00 ET
Where: Bud Walton Arena Fayetteville, AR
TV: ESPN2
Point Spread: ALA -1/ ARK +1
Total: 153.5
Money Line: Alabama Crimson Tide -118/ Arkansas Razorbacks -105

The 13-2 Crimson Tide and the 12-3 Razorbacks will battle it out at the Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville tonight. Can they keep it going, or will the Razorbacks get the best of them?

Line Movement

This game hit the board with the Crimson Tide as a tiny -1 road favorite, but the early betting action has revered favoritism to the Razorbacks -1.5. The O/U line opened at as low as 150.5 but has risen to as high as 153.5 at some sportsbooks.

Last Game Info

Alabama picked up a victory over Kentucky by a score of 78-52. Heading into the game, the Crimson Tide were favored to win, with a point spread of -5.5. The combined 130 points did not surpass the 147.5 total line.

Arkansas most recently fell to Auburn (72-59). Not only did the Razorbacks lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +2.5 point underdogs. The combined 131 points did not surpass the 140.5 total line.

Current Form

Alabama
Over their last five games, Alabama has a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 3-2 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Crimson Tide offense averages 82.8 points per game while hitting 47.8% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 38.4% from the field while allowing 69.0 points per contest.

Arkansas
In their previous five contests, Arkansas is 3-2 straight-up and 2-3 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 70.2 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.2%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 41.7% of their shots while giving up 61.6 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Alabama’s opponents comes in at 79.3. On the other side, Arkansas’ combined opponent power rating is 78.2.

How Does Alabama Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Crimson Tide have played five road games and have a record of 4-1. In these contests, Alabama is 3-2 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 77.0 points per game on a shooting percentage of 43.0%. On defense, the Crimson Tide allows 71.4 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 40.2% in these games.

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How Does Arkansas Fare At Home?

In their 11 games at home, Arkansas has a 6-5 record vs. the spread while going 10-1 straight-up. On offense, the Razorbacks are shooting 49.5% on their home floor, leading to 78.3 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 39.4% in these contests. The Arkansas defense is allowing 59.9 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Alabama is averaging 80.0 points per game (15th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 44.1%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against an Arkansas defense that has allowed an average of 62.9 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 41.2% of their shots vs. Arkansas. On the other side, the Arkansas Razorbacks are coming into the game averaging 76.9 points per game on a shooting percentage of 44.0%. The Razorbacks will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 69.7 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 37.6% of their shots vs. the Crimson Tide.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Alabama has a shooting percentage of 30.8% while ranking 61st in attempts per game. The Crimson Tide will be facing an Arkansas defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 28.8%. Arkansas enters the game having hit 30.7% of their looks from deep while averaging 6.36 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Alabama has allowed opponents to hit 27.6% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note

Alabama

  • Nimari Burnett (Out) Wrist

Arkansas

  • Trevon Brazile (Out) Knee
  • Nick Smith Jr. (Out) Knee

Pick Against The Spread

I’m going with the public on this. Sure the ‘Tide is 3-0 in conference play, but they didn’t beat much. The Razorbacks are just 1-2 in the SEC, but the two losses were on the road, and they easily took care of Missouri 74-68 in their only conference game on their home court. Also, on paper, Arkansas has a significant advantage on the boards, which should be the difference here.