The VCU Rams return to the Siegel Center as a massive favorite against a Patriot League opponent in American University. Bryan Bash dives into the efficiency metrics to determine if the nation’s 28th-ranked adjusted defense can secure a dominant cover in this December 18th clash.
The Setup: American University at VCU
VCU’s laying 21.5 points at home against American University, and I can already hear the skepticism: That’s a massive number for a mid-major matchup in December. Look, I get it. Spreads in the 20s make everyone nervous. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t just some random blowout projection – it’s what happens when a top-40 national program hosts a Patriot League opponent with a glaring talent gap.
Here’s the thing – VCU checks in at #37 nationally in adjusted net efficiency at +15.9, while American sits at #216 with a -3.6 adjusted net rating. That’s nearly a 20-point efficiency gap right there, and we’re getting 21.5. The Rams are defending at an elite level (#28 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 98.0), and they’re doing it at the Siegel Center where they’ve built their program’s identity on suffocating home court defense.
American comes in at 7-4, but let me walk you through what that record actually means. Their best win is against Drexel by two points. Their loss to Siena saw them score just 55 points. This is a team ranked #217 in adjusted offensive efficiency at 105.5, and they’re about to face a defense that ranks #28 nationally. The math doesn’t favor the Eagles.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: American University (7-4) @ VCU (6-3)
Date: December 18, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Siegel Center, Richmond, VA
Spread: VCU -21.5
Total: 152.5
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap is the story here, and it’s too extreme to ignore. VCU’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 98.0 ranks #28 nationally according to collegebasketballdata.com, while American’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 105.5 (#217). That’s a defense-offense matchup that heavily favors the home team.
But here’s where it gets interesting – both teams play at nearly identical tempos. American runs at 72.0 possessions per game (#66), while VCU pushes it slightly faster at 72.4 (#53). Over approximately 72 possessions, that efficiency gap translates to real points. Do that math over a full game, and you’re looking at a margin that supports this spread.
VCU’s offensive rating of 116.2 (#113) isn’t elite, but it doesn’t need to be. Their adjusted offensive efficiency of 113.9 (#78) is solid, and they’re facing a defense ranked #206 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 109.2. The Rams rank #88 nationally in opponent field goal percentage at 41.1%, while American allows 43.7% (#197). That’s not just a defensive advantage – it’s why VCU should control possessions from start to finish.
The rebounding edge seals the efficiency argument. VCU grabs 39.2 boards per game (#88) with a 32.9% offensive rebounding rate (#120). American? Just 34.6 rebounds per game (#258) with a 29.4% offensive rebounding rate (#248). Second-chance points and possession control matter in margin games, and VCU dominates both categories.
American University’s Situation
The Eagles do have some positives worth acknowledging. Their adjusted defensive efficiency of 109.2 isn’t terrible for a Patriot League team, and they rank #59 in defensive rating at 98.0. They also generate 9.4 steals per game (#38), which shows they can create some havoc. Madden Collins leads the way at 13.3 points per game, and Greg Jones adds 11.8 as a secondary scorer.
But here’s where reality hits: American ranks #258 in rebounds per game and #248 in offensive rebounding percentage. They’re going to get crushed on the glass against a VCU team that ranks #88 and #120 in those same categories. When you can’t rebound, you can’t extend possessions, and you can’t overcome talent gaps.
The offensive efficiency is the bigger concern. At #217 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, American struggles to generate quality shots against quality competition. Their 34.6% three-point shooting (#144) is below average, and their 54.3% effective field goal percentage (#104) is merely okay. That 55-point output against Siena? That’s what happens when this offense faces legitimate defensive pressure.
Looking at their recent form, they’ve beaten Maryland Eastern Shore, Drexel by two, and Longwood – none of which prepare you for the Siegel Center. This is a massive step up in class.
VCU’s Situation
The Rams are 6-3, but don’t let the record fool you – their losses came at Vanderbilt and against New Mexico, both quality opponents. At home, they’ve been dominant, and that #28 ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency tells you everything about their identity. This is a program built on defense, and the Siegel Center amplifies that advantage.
Terrence Hill Jr. leads the scoring at 13.1 points per game, with Jadrian Tracey (12.0 PPG) and Lazar Djokovic (11.0 PPG) providing balanced offensive contributions. But the real story is Barry Evans, who’s pulling down 6.1 rebounds per game (#303 nationally) while adding 2.9 assists (#451). That’s your do-everything forward who controls the glass and facilitates.
VCU’s 4.7 blocks per game (#49) and 8.3 steals per game (#89) show they defend with length and aggression. They rank #88 in opponent field goal percentage at 41.1%, which means they consistently contest shots and force difficult looks. American’s #217 adjusted offensive efficiency is about to meet its worst nightmare.
The home court edge at the Siegel Center can’t be overstated. VCU has won their home games by an average of 18 points this season, including a 26-point demolition of Niagara and a 26-point beatdown of Samford. When they get inferior competition at home, they bury them.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the glass and defensive pressure. VCU’s rebounding advantage is massive – they rank #88 in rebounds per game while American sits at #258. That’s not just a statistical edge – it’s a possession killer. Every offensive rebound VCU grabs extends their lead and demoralizes American’s already-limited offense.
The three-point shooting matchup slightly favors VCU at 35.8% (#102) versus American’s 34.6% (#144), but the real advantage is shot selection. VCU’s 53.4% effective field goal percentage against American’s 54.3% looks similar, but context matters. VCU generates those numbers against better competition (#78 in adjusted offensive efficiency versus #217).
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: VCU’s #28-ranked adjusted defense against American’s #217-ranked adjusted offense. According to collegebasketballdata.com, that’s a 111-point gap in the rankings. When you see separations that extreme in efficiency metrics, the inferior offense typically gets absolutely smothered.
The pace matchup works in VCU’s favor too. Both teams play around 72 possessions, which means there’s enough game volume for the talent gap to manifest. This isn’t a 60-possession rock fight where variance keeps it close. Over 72 possessions, the better team wins big.
I keep coming back to those rebounding numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. A 4.6 rebound per game advantage might not sound massive, but over 72 possessions with VCU’s superior offensive rebounding rate, that’s multiple extra scoring opportunities. That’s a 10-12 point swing right there.
My Play
The Pick: VCU -21.5 (2 units)
I’ve considered the big number, the mid-major matchup dynamics, and the possibility of VCU taking their foot off the gas. I’ve looked at all of that, and the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. A top-40 national program with elite defense hosting a #216 adjusted net efficiency team should win by 25-plus.
The main risk here is if VCU gets comfortable early and coasts in the second half, or if American catches fire from three and stays within striking distance. But American’s #144 ranking in three-point shooting and VCU’s defensive intensity at home make that unlikely. The Rams are 6.1 rebounds per game better on the glass, 111 spots higher in adjusted net efficiency, and playing in front of their home crowd.
My projected score: VCU 88, American 63
That’s a 25-point margin, which gives us cushion on the 21.5. VCU’s identity is built on defensive dominance at home, and American doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. When the efficiency gap is this wide and the home court advantage is this real, you lay the points.
