Auburn dominated the first meeting by 22 points, but the Tigers are currently in freefall, losing three straight and surrendering nearly 80 points per game. Facing an Arkansas squad that is 14-5 ATS this season, the situational spot in Fayetteville looks like a nightmare for the visitors—making this a prime best bet opportunity for those fading Auburn’s leaky defense.
The Setup: Auburn at Arkansas
Arkansas is laying 8.5 at Bud Walton Arena on Saturday night against Auburn, and the efficiency numbers tell you exactly why this line landed where it did. Both teams check in at #21 in the AP Poll, but when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com advanced metrics, this isn’t the coin-flip matchup the rankings suggest. Arkansas sits at #17 in adjusted net rating with a +25.2 mark, while Auburn checks in at #31 with a +20.4. That 4.8-point gap in net efficiency is real, and it shows up in every layer of this matchup. The Razorbacks own the #5 adjusted offensive efficiency in the country at 126.3, paired with a #47 defensive rating. Auburn counters with the #7 offense but a significantly leakier #95 defense. This is an SEC shootout waiting to happen, and the market knows it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks
Date: Saturday, February 14, 2026
Time: 8:30 PM ET
Location: Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR
TV: Conference Game
Betting Lines:
Spread: Arkansas -8.5
Total: 165/165.5
Moneyline: Arkansas -430, Auburn +320
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The 8.5-point spread makes perfect sense when you break down the efficiency gap and home court value. Arkansas’s adjusted offensive efficiency ranks #5 nationally at 126.3, going up against Auburn’s #95 defensive rating at 104.8. That’s a 21.5-point mismatch in Arkansas’s favor on one end. Flip it around, and Auburn’s #7 offense at 125.2 faces Arkansas’s #47 defense at 101.1—a 24.1-point edge for the Tigers. But here’s the thing: defense travels better than offense in conference play, and Arkansas holds the defensive advantage while playing at home.
The pace blend projects around 70 possessions, splitting the difference between Auburn’s 67.5 tempo (#175 nationally) and Arkansas’s 71.8 (#21). Neither team is forcing extreme pace, but Arkansas controls tempo better and converts more efficiently. The Razorbacks shoot 60.5% true shooting compared to Auburn’s 58.2%, and their 56.7% effective field goal percentage dwarfs Auburn’s 52.8%. That 3.9-point gap in shooting quality adds up over 70 possessions.
What makes this line interesting is Auburn’s 36.7% offensive rebounding rate, which ranks #3 nationally. That’s a massive 6.5-point edge over Arkansas’s 30.2% mark. Second-chance points could keep this closer than the efficiency numbers suggest, especially if Auburn gets hot from three after offensive boards.
Auburn Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Auburn brings a legitimately elite offense to Fayetteville, ranking #7 in adjusted efficiency at 125.2. The Tigers score 84.3 points per game (#31) with that #3 offensive rebounding rate creating extra possessions. Keyshawn Hall leads the way at 20.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, giving Auburn a versatile scorer who can crash the glass. Tahaad Pettiford adds 15.7 points as a secondary option.
The problem? Auburn can’t stop anybody right now. They’re allowing 78.7 points per game (#308 nationally) with a 112.6 defensive rating (#289). Opponents are shooting 45.2% from the field (#251) and 35.6% from three (#299). That’s brutal defense, and it gets worse on the road where Auburn is just 2-6 straight up this season. In conference play, the Tigers are 5-6 with an ATS record of 4-7, and they’re 3-6 ATS in their last nine road games.
Auburn’s last five games show a team in freefall: three straight losses to Vanderbilt, Alabama, and Tennessee before wins over Texas and Florida. They’re 3-7 ATS in their last ten games, and the defensive issues aren’t getting better.
Arkansas Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Arkansas is rolling at 18-6 overall and 8-3 in SEC play, with that #5 adjusted offensive efficiency leading the charge. The Razorbacks score 88.8 points per game (#11) while shooting 50.2% from the field (#18) and 37.1% from three (#37). Darius Acuff Jr. runs the show at 17.4 points and 5.4 assists per game, while Meleek Thomas adds 16.9 points. This is a balanced, efficient offense that takes care of the ball with just 9.3 turnovers per game (#12 nationally).
The defense isn’t elite, but it’s solid enough at #47 in adjusted efficiency (101.1). Arkansas allows 76.5 points per game while holding opponents to 43.7% shooting and 30.9% from three (#50). At home, the Razorbacks are 13-3 straight up and 11-5 ATS, with four wins in their last five games. They just demolished LSU 91-62 on the road and beat Mississippi State 88-68 before that.
The concerning trend? Arkansas is 1-3-1 ATS in their last five against Auburn and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 home games against the Tigers. Auburn has owned this matchup historically at Bud Walton, going 9-3 ATS in their last 12 trips to Fayetteville. That’s a real red flag.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Auburn can generate enough second-chance points to overcome Arkansas’s efficiency advantage. That 36.7% offensive rebounding rate is Auburn’s lifeline, and if they can turn defensive boards into transition opportunities, they’ll keep this competitive. The Tigers average 291 fast break points compared to Arkansas’s 462, so the Razorbacks are better in the open court.
The shooting quality gap matters more than anything else. Arkansas’s 56.7% effective field goal percentage against Auburn’s 52.8% translates to roughly 3-4 more points per 100 possessions just on shot quality alone. Over 70 possessions, that’s a 2-3 point swing before you factor in free throws, turnovers, or rebounding. Arkansas also assists on 17.1 shots per game (#34) compared to Auburn’s 13.0 (#257), meaning the Razorbacks generate better looks through ball movement.
The total of 165 feels low given both teams’ offensive capabilities and defensive limitations. Auburn’s defensive rating of 112.6 and Arkansas’s 106.5 suggest both teams will score. The pace blend projects 70 possessions with a combined scoring expectation well over 165. Recent Arkansas home games have gone over in seven of their last eight at Bud Walton, while Auburn road totals have gone under in four of their last six. Something’s got to give.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m staying away from the side despite Arkansas’s clear efficiency edge. That 3-10-1 ATS record at home against Auburn over the last 14 meetings is too glaring to ignore, and Auburn’s offensive rebounding could keep this within single digits. The model projects Arkansas by 9.1, which barely covers the 8.5, but the historical trends scream trap.
The play is Over 165. Both teams rank top-35 in adjusted offensive efficiency, Auburn can’t guard anybody (#289 defensive rating), and Arkansas scores 88.8 per game at a faster pace than Auburn wants to play. The model projects 175.2 total points, which is a massive 10-point difference from the market number. Arkansas has gone over in seven of eight home games recently, and when these teams meet at Bud Walton, the total has gone over in six of the last eight. Give me the points in what should be an SEC track meet.
Best Bet: Over 165 (-110)
