Barking Dog Alert: Colorado vs. Marquette Pick

Colorado Buffaloes (26-10 SU, 19-17-1 ATS) vs. Marquette Golden Eagles (26-9 SU, 22-13-1 ATS)

When: Sunday, March 24th, 12:10 PM (ET)

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, IN, Indianapolis

TV: CBS

Point Spread: COL +4.5/MARQ -4.5

Total: 147.5

Money Line: Colorado Buffaloes +139/-171

Notable Injuries

Buffaloes

• Julian Hammond (Out) Knee
• RJ Smith (Out) Leg

Golden Eagles

• Sean Jones (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Colorado heads into this game as the underdog, as they are getting 3.5 points. They have gone 2-4 as the underdog this season and are 2-0 in their last two games. For the year, they are 26-10, and in their last 10 road games, they are 7-3.

On the season, the Buffaloes have gone 9-8 on the road, and their average scoring differential is -1.0 points per game. They have won their last seven road games and are 5-0 in their previous five.

Colorado’s over/under record this season is 21-16, and the average scoring total in their games is 148.9. Today’s over/under line of 147.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games. So far, 16 of their games have finished with more points than today’s line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1, with an average scoring total of 152 points.

As the underdog, Colorado has gone just 2-4 against the spread this season and 19-17-1 overall. However, the Buffaloes have been strong vs. the spread on the road this year, going 8-9 and 7-3 in their last 10 road games.

Marquette has been dominant at home this season, going 20-3 with an average scoring margin of +14.6 points per game. They have won four straight games at home, and over their last 10 games at home, they are 9-1. So far this season, they have been the favorite in 27 of their 35 games, going 23-4 in those games.

Overall, the Golden Eagles have gone 26-9 this season, including a 17-7 record in Big East games. They have gone 9-2 in non-conference games, and their average scoring margin at home is +14.6 points per game.

Marquette’s over/under record this season is 15-21, and today’s over/under line of 147.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (148.9). So far, 17 of their games have finished with fewer points than today’s over/under line, and over their last three games, the average scoring total is 144 points.

At home this season, Marquette has an ATS record of 16-6-1 and an overall ATS mark of 22-13-1. In their last three home games, the Golden Eagles have gone 3-0 vs. the spread, and over their last 10 games as the favorite, they are a perfect 10-0.

Analysis

Colorado’s offense is coming off a good game, putting up 102 points vs. Florida. Overall, they hit 63% of their shots from the field and went 28/33 from the free-throw line. KJ Simpson led the team in scoring, putting up 23 points. Additionally, Eddie Lampkin Jr. contributed 21 points for the Buffaloes.

On defense, Colorado is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 70.9 points per game. So far, the Colorado defense is giving up an average of 8.3 offensive rebounds per game and is turning teams over 12.1 times per game.

Marquette’s offense is coming off a good game, putting up 87 points vs. Western Kentucky. Overall, they hit 47.8% of their shots from the field and went 8/15 from the free-throw line. Offensively, the Golden Eagles hold a season-long field goal percentage of 47%, placing them 55th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 74th in terms of percentage and 43rd in three-pointers made.

So far, the Golden Eagles’ defense is ranked 108th in the country at 69.6 points per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 8.3 threes per game vs. Colorado. This has come on a three-point shooting percentage of 33.0%.

Betting Trends

• In their last ten games away from home, the Buffaloes have a straight-up record of 7-3 while going 7-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 75 points per game in these contests.
• When looking at their past three home matchups, Marquette has an ATS record of 1-2 while averaging 72 per game. The team went 1-2 overall in these games.
• Spanning across their last ten games as the betting underdog, the Buffaloes have gone 5-5 vs the spread. Their overall record in these games was 3-7.
• Going back to their last ten games as the favorite, the Golden Eagles have a straight up record of 10-0. But, their mark vs the spread was just 10-0.

Crew’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The line is going the opposite direction since the opener, but I’m all about snagging those points today. Let’s zero in on the Buffaloes—these guys are straight-up sharpshooters. They’re lighting it up with a 12th-ranked shooting efficiency, drilling it from downtown at 39.4% (that’s 6th in the nation) and ice-cold from the free-throw line at 78.4% (sitting pretty at 10th). The key? They gotta keep their cool against Marquette’s in-your-face defense. If Colorado can steer clear of the turnover trap, they’re not just covering; they might just snatch this win outright. My take? Lean hard on Colorado +4.5. This isn’t just a bet; it’s a nod to those Buffaloes turning the heat up when it counts.