The Belmont Bruins travel to Carver Arena as 2.5-point favorites, looking to maintain their dominant form atop the Missouri Valley Conference. Will Belmont’s top-tier field goal defense deliver a winning ATS pick, or can Jaquan Johnson and the Braves pull off the home upset?
The Setup: Belmont at Bradley
Belmont’s rolling into Carver Arena on Monday night as a 2.5-point road favorite against Bradley, and if you’re scratching your head at that number, you haven’t been watching the Bruins dismantle the Missouri Valley Conference. The 9-1 Bruins are laying a short number in Peoria, and when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency metrics, this line tells you everything about how the market views this matchup. Belmont’s adjusted defensive rating sits at 98.6, ranking 34th nationally, while their adjusted offensive efficiency checks in at 113.2. Bradley? They’re at 101.9 defensively (61st) and 106.1 offensively (203rd). The Bruins own a 10.4-point edge in adjusted net efficiency, and that’s exactly the kind of separation that justifies laying points on the road in a conference game.
This isn’t some blind faith play on the better record. Belmont’s defensive profile is legitimate—they’re holding opponents to 35.8% from the field, 5th in the nation, and 27.8% from three (29th nationally). Bradley’s guard-heavy attack runs into a buzzsaw here, and the tempo split matters. Belmont plays at 73.1 possessions per game (40th) while Bradley crawls at 68.7 (170th). The Bruins dictate pace, and when they do, Bradley’s middling offense gets exposed.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Belmont (9-1) @ Bradley (6-4)
Date: February 9, 2026
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Carver Arena, Peoria, IL
Type: MVC Conference Game
Point Spread: Belmont -2.5
Total: 154.5
Moneyline: Belmont -140, Bradley +120
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market’s giving Belmont 2.5 points on the road, and that’s essentially saying these teams are separated by about five points on a neutral floor. Using the adjusted efficiency gap—Belmont’s 14.7 net rating (44th) versus Bradley’s 4.3 (125th)—you’d project closer to a six or seven-point separation. Factor in home court (worth roughly three points), and we should be looking at Belmont -3.5 or -4. Instead, we’re getting -2.5.
The total at 154.5 makes more sense when you account for the tempo clash. Belmont’s averaging 85.6 points per game (61st) while allowing 66.7 (57th in defensive efficiency). Bradley’s at 75.3 points (234th) and 68.3 allowed (82nd). When you blend Belmont’s faster pace with Bradley’s tendency to slow things down, you land somewhere around 71-72 possessions. Multiply that by the combined offensive efficiency, and 154-155 total points is right in the pocket. The market nailed this one.
But here’s the wrinkle: Bradley’s last five games show defensive vulnerability. They gave up 85 to UIC at home and 61 at Northern Iowa in their most recent outing. That UNI loss is telling—they scored just 49 points against a team that grinds possessions. When Bradley can’t score, they can’t win, and Belmont’s defense is significantly better than Northern Iowa’s.
Belmont Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Bruins aren’t just winning—they’re suffocating teams defensively while maintaining elite offensive efficiency. That 60.1% effective field goal percentage (12th nationally) tells you they’re getting quality looks, and their 51.5% overall field goal percentage (18th) backs it up. Nic McClain runs the show with 6.5 assists per game (11th nationally), and when you pair that distribution with Tyler Lundblade’s 15.8 points per game and Sam Orme’s 13.8 points and 6.7 boards, you’ve got balance that’s tough to gameplan against.
The concern? Free throw shooting at 64.3% (337th nationally) is abysmal for a team this good elsewhere. If this game gets tight late, that’s a legitimate worry. But Belmont’s five-game win streak includes road victories at UIC and Valparaiso, plus home drubbings of Drake (103-90) and Murray State (103-86). They’ve proven they can win away from home and they can blow teams out when they get rolling.
Defensively, this is where Belmont separates. Opponents are shooting 35.8% from the floor and 27.8% from three. Bradley’s guard-heavy lineup—led by Jaquan Johnson’s 18.2 points per game—will face constant pressure, and the Bruins’ 7.0 steals per game (202nd) isn’t overwhelming, but their discipline forces tough shots.
Bradley Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Bradley’s got some juice offensively when Jaquan Johnson gets going, and their 9.8 steals per game (28th nationally) can create transition opportunities. Montana Wheeler dishes 3.6 assists per game alongside Johnson’s 3.4, giving them multiple creators. The problem is everything else. They’re shooting 44.4% from the floor (229th) and 34.6% from three (144th), and when you’re facing the nation’s 5th-ranked field goal defense, those numbers aren’t getting better.
The Braves’ offensive rating of 109.6 (210th) is pedestrian, and their adjusted offensive efficiency at 106.1 (203rd) confirms they struggle to generate consistent offense against quality opponents. They’re also getting destroyed on the glass, ranking 334th in rebounds per game at 32.0. Belmont’s not a great rebounding team either—they’re 351st in offensive rebounding percentage at 24.3%—but Bradley’s inability to control the boards means second-chance points could tilt this.
Bradley’s home splits matter here. They’re 4-1 at Carver Arena this season, with wins over Valparaiso, Drake, and Indiana State. But that UIC loss at home (70-85) exposed their defensive limitations against teams that can score efficiently. Belmont’s 117.4 offensive rating (99th) is better than UIC’s, and the Bruins’ tempo will test Bradley’s ability to defend in space.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on whether Bradley can generate enough offense against Belmont’s elite defense. The Bruins rank 15th in defensive rating at 91.0, and they’ve held four of their last five opponents under 80 points. Bradley’s averaging 75.3 points per game, but against defenses ranked in the top 50, that number drops. The Braves’ best chance is forcing turnovers—they’re 66th in turnover ratio—but Belmont’s only coughing it up 13.5 times per game (277th), which isn’t ideal but manageable.
The pace battle is crucial. Belmont wants to push the tempo to 73+ possessions, while Bradley’s comfortable in the 68-70 range. Whoever wins that battle controls the game’s flow. If Belmont gets out in transition and exploits Bradley’s 43.8% opponent field goal percentage (200th), this gets ugly fast. If Bradley slows it down and forces Belmont into halfcourt sets, they’ve got a puncher’s chance.
The head-to-head history leans Belmont. They won the first meeting this season 88-78 at home, and they’ve taken three of the last four overall. Bradley’s lone win in that stretch was a blowout (95-72 in January 2024), but that was a different roster. This year’s Belmont team is better defensively and more disciplined offensively.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 2.5 points with Belmont, and I’m not overthinking it. The efficiency gap is real, the defensive matchup heavily favors the Bruins, and Bradley’s offensive limitations get exposed here. Belmont’s proven they can win on the road in conference play, and their 34th-ranked adjusted defense against Bradley’s 203rd-ranked adjusted offense is a mismatch the market’s undervaluing.
The total at 154.5 is tempting to go under given Belmont’s defensive prowess, but Bradley’s tendency to push pace when trailing could inflate the number late. I’m staying away from the total and riding with Belmont -2.5. The Bruins cover and win by 6-8 in a game that’s closer than it should be only because of their free throw shooting. Give me the better team, the better defense, and the team that’s actually built for March. Belmont gets it done in Peoria.
