Expert handicapper Bryan Bash breaks down why Belmont -3.5 is his ATS pick of the night. With the Bruins shooting over 40% from deep and leading the MVC in road efficiency, Bash sees a significant edge over a UIC squad struggling with perimeter defense.
The Setup: Belmont at UIC
Belmont’s rolling into Credit Union 1 Arena on Friday night laying 3.5 points against UIC, and if you’re scratching your head wondering why a 9-1 team is getting such a short number on the road, you’re asking the right question. The Bruins have been lighting up the Missouri Valley Conference, but this line tells you the market respects what UIC brings to the table at home. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, though, this spread feels like it’s giving UIC credit for location more than production. Belmont’s adjusted net efficiency sits at +14.7, ranking 44th nationally, while UIC checks in at -3.4 and 213th overall. That’s an 18-point swing in efficiency, and the market’s only asking for 3.5. This number deserves a closer look.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Date: February 6, 2026
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Venue: Credit Union 1 Arena, Chicago, IL
Point Spread: Belmont -3.5
Total: 150.5
Moneyline: Belmont -150 / UIC +130
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The 3.5-point spread essentially translates to home court advantage wiping out most of Belmont’s statistical superiority, and I’m not buying it. Belmont’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 113.2 ranks 88th nationally, while their adjusted defensive efficiency sits at 98.6, good for 34th in the country. That defensive number matters because UIC’s offensive efficiency is pedestrian at best—105.0 adjusted offensive rating ranking 229th. The Flames score 77.2 per game, but they’re doing it against inferior competition and with significantly worse efficiency metrics.
The total of 150.5 factors in Belmont’s faster pace (73.1, ranking 40th) against UIC’s slower tempo (69.7, 140th). When the faster team controls pace, which Belmont typically does, we’re looking at somewhere around 71-72 possessions. Apply the efficiency numbers, and you’re projecting closer to 155-158 combined points. The market’s shading this total down, likely accounting for UIC’s ability to grind games at home, but Belmont’s been in the 80s or higher in four of their last five games. The math suggests this total has upside.
Belmont Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Bruins aren’t just winning—they’re dominating on both ends. That 91.0 defensive rating ranks 15th nationally, and it shows up in opponent field goal percentage. Teams are shooting just 35.8% from the field against Belmont (5th in the nation) and a paltry 27.8% from three (29th). When you’re holding opponents to those percentages, you don’t need perfect offense, but Belmont’s got that too.
Offensively, the Bruins shoot 51.5% from the field (18th) with a 60.1% effective field goal percentage that ranks 12th nationally. Tyler Lundblade leads at 15.8 per game, but this is a balanced attack with five guys averaging double figures. Nic McClain’s the engine—6.5 assists per game ranks 11th nationally—and when you’re moving the ball like Belmont does (18.9 assists per game, 21st), you create quality looks. The only blemish is free throw shooting at 64.3%, ranking 337th, but that’s a concern only in tight games.
UIC Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Flames have won four of five, so there’s momentum here, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. UIC’s offensive rating of 110.8 ranks 187th, and their adjusted offensive efficiency at 105.0 (229th) reveals they’re not creating efficient offense against quality opponents. They shoot just 44.5% from the field (226th) and 30.4% from three (300th). Those are rough numbers against a Belmont defense that ranks in the top five nationally in opponent field goal percentage.
Where UIC does excel is offensive rebounding—38.2% offensive rebound rate ranks 7th nationally. That’s a legitimate weapon, especially at home where they can crash the glass aggressively. Ahmad Henderson II and Andy Johnson provide scoring punch at 15.7 and 14.0 per game respectively, but this team lacks the efficiency to trade baskets with Belmont over 70-plus possessions. The defensive rating of 105.1 (169th) isn’t terrible, but it’s not stopping an offense as efficient as Belmont’s.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether UIC can slow Belmont’s tempo and create enough second-chance opportunities to overcome the efficiency gap. Belmont’s offensive rebound percentage of 24.3% ranks 351st nationally—they don’t crash the offensive glass. That theoretically plays into UIC’s hands, but here’s the problem: when you’re shooting 35.8% against Belmont’s defense, those offensive rebounds become less valuable because you’re still not converting at an efficient rate.
The pace battle matters significantly. Belmont wants to push tempo at 73.1 possessions per game, while UIC prefers 69.7. Four possessions might not sound like much, but at Belmont’s offensive efficiency, that’s an extra 8-10 points. UIC’s had success grinding games at home, but Belmont’s last five games have all featured 73 or more points scored by the Bruins. They’re not a team that gets bogged down easily.
The head-to-head history favors Belmont decisively—they’ve won four straight meetings, including an 87-84 victory earlier this season. In that game, Belmont’s efficiency won out despite UIC’s home court. Nothing in UIC’s profile suggests they’ve improved enough to flip that script, especially against a Belmont defense that’s gotten even stingier.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 3.5 with Belmont and sprinkling the over. The efficiency gap is too significant to ignore, and UIC’s offensive limitations get exposed against elite defenses. Belmont’s 98.6 adjusted defensive efficiency against UIC’s 105.0 adjusted offensive efficiency is a mismatch, and the Bruins have the tempo control to dictate possessions.
The 3.5-point spread is essentially a home-court tax, but UIC’s home splits don’t justify that premium against a team 18 points better in adjusted net efficiency. Belmont wins this game by 7-10 points, and the over cashes if the Bruins push pace like they’re capable of doing. The numbers don’t lie—Belmont’s the sharp side here, and I’m not overthinking it.
