Bryan Bash kicks off 2026 with a deep dive into an MVC showdown at the Curb Event Center. Belmont enters as a 5.5-point favorite, but can Bradley’s ball-hawking defense secure a road ATS pick against one of the most efficient offenses in the country?
The Setup: Bradley at Belmont
Belmont’s laying 5.5 points at home against Bradley on New Year’s Day, and this is one of those MVC conference games where the line tells you everything you need to know about the gap between these programs. The Bruins are 9-1 and sitting at #44 nationally in adjusted net efficiency according to collegebasketballdata.com, while Bradley checks in at #125. That’s an 81-spot gap in the most predictive metric we have, and it’s showing up in every facet of this matchup.
Here’s the thing – Bradley comes in riding a five-game winning streak, but when you dig into those wins, you’re looking at victories over Evansville, Southern Illinois, Indiana State, North Central College, and Northern Illinois. That’s not exactly Murderers’ Row. Meanwhile, Belmont’s only loss came in a one-point heartbreaker at Indiana State, and they’ve been absolutely dominant otherwise. I keep coming back to the efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore, and when you factor in Belmont playing at Curb Event Center, this spread might actually be a touch light.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Bradley (6-4) at Belmont (9-1)
Date: January 1, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Curb Event Center Arena, Nashville, TN
Spread: Belmont -5.5 (DraftKings) / -5 (Bovada)
Total: 151.5
Conference: MVC
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let me walk you through the efficiency gap that makes this spread completely justifiable. Belmont’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 113.2 (#88 nationally), while Bradley’s defensive efficiency is 101.9 (#61). That’s a solid matchup for the Braves defensively, but here’s where it gets ugly for them: Bradley’s adjusted offensive efficiency is just 106.1 (#203), and they’re running into a Belmont defense rated at 98.6 (#34) in adjusted defensive efficiency.
That’s not just a good defense – it’s an elite unit that holds opponents to 35.8% shooting from the field (#5 nationally) and 27.8% from three-point range (#29). When you’ve got the fifth-best field goal percentage defense in the country, you’re not just lucky – you’re fundamentally sound and well-coached.
The pace factor matters here too. Belmont runs at 73.1 possessions per game (#40), while Bradley plays slower at 68.7 (#170). Belmont’s going to dictate tempo at home, which means we’re looking at roughly 71-72 possessions. Do that math over 72 possessions with Belmont’s offensive rating advantage of nearly 8 points per 100 possessions in raw efficiency, and you’re looking at a double-digit expected margin before you even factor in home court.
Bradley’s Situation
The Braves have some things working in their favor, starting with their defensive rating of 99.6 (#89). They’re holding opponents to 68.3 points per game (#82), and they create havoc with 9.8 steals per game (#28 nationally). Jaquan Johnson leads the way at 18.2 points per game, and Montana Wheeler dishes out 3.6 assists per contest, giving them some legitimate playmaking.
But here’s where Bradley’s problems become glaring: they rank #334 in rebounds per game at just 32.0, and their offensive rebounding percentage of 28.4% (#280) means they’re not generating second-chance opportunities. When you shoot 44.4% from the field (#229) and can’t get offensive boards, you’re living and dying with your first shot. Against the fifth-best field goal percentage defense in America, that’s a recipe for offensive droughts.
The five-game winning streak looks nice, but Bradley’s offensive rating of 109.6 (#210) tells you they’re not exactly lighting up the scoreboard against quality competition. They’ve taken care of business against inferior opponents, which is what you’re supposed to do, but this is a massive step up in class.
Belmont’s Situation
The Bruins are one of the most efficient offensive teams Bradley will face all season. That 60.1% effective field goal percentage ranks #12 nationally, and it’s built on elite ball movement – 18.9 assists per game (#21) – and sharp shooting at 51.5% from the field (#18) and 37.4% from three (#46).
Nic McClain is the engine that makes this offense go, ranking #11 nationally with 6.5 assists per game. Tyler Lundblade leads the scoring at 15.8 points, but this is a balanced attack with five guys averaging between 9.6 and 15.8 points. That depth matters in conference play when teams have had time to scout your primary options.
Defensively, Belmont’s numbers are just absurd. Holding teams to 35.8% shooting and 27.8% from three means they’re contesting shots, rotating properly, and making everything difficult. Their defensive rating of 91.0 (#15) is top-20 nationally, and they’re allowing just 66.7 points per game (#57). The only concern is their free throw shooting at 64.3% (#337), but that’s a minor blemish on an otherwise dominant profile.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Bradley’s ability to score against elite defense, and I just don’t see it happening consistently enough to keep this close. Bradley’s effective field goal percentage of 52.2% (#170) is solid but unremarkable, and when you’re facing a defense that ranks #5 in opponent field goal percentage, that number’s going to crater.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Belmont’s perimeter defense versus Bradley’s three-point shooting. The Bruins hold opponents to 27.8% from three (#29), while Bradley shoots 34.6% from deep (#144). That’s already a tough ask, but when you factor in that Bradley ranks #268 in assists per game at just 13.0, you’re looking at a team that doesn’t create great looks consistently. Against a defense this stingy, contested threes become turnovers real quick.
The pace advantage goes to Belmont at home, and the rebounding edge is massive – Belmont grabs 40.7 boards per game (#54) compared to Bradley’s 32.0 (#334). That’s nearly nine extra rebounding opportunities per game, which translates to additional possessions and second-chance points. Over a 72-possession game, that rebounding gap alone is worth 4-5 points.
Bradley’s steal rate (#28 nationally at 9.8 per game) could create some chaos, but Belmont’s turnover ratio isn’t terrible at 0.2 (#228), and they’re experienced enough to handle pressure at home. The main risk here is if Bradley gets hot from three early and builds confidence, but even then, Belmont’s offensive firepower should allow them to weather any runs.
My Play
The Pick: Belmont -5.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’ve considered all of that, and the efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. We’re talking about an 81-spot difference in adjusted net efficiency between a team playing at home and a team that’s been beating up on inferior competition. Belmont’s defensive profile – #5 in opponent field goal percentage, #29 in opponent three-point percentage, #34 in adjusted defensive efficiency – is exactly the type of unit that exposes Bradley’s offensive limitations.
The rebounding advantage alone should be worth 4-5 points, and when you add in Belmont’s superior shooting, ball movement, and home court, I’m projecting this closer to Belmont 81, Bradley 70. That’s an 11-point margin, which gives us plenty of cushion on the 5.5-point spread.
The only scenario where this goes sideways is if Bradley’s pressure defense creates 15+ turnovers and they hit 40% from three, but even collegebasketballdata.com’s metrics suggest that’s unlikely against a team as efficient as Belmont. Lay the points with the Bruins at home and expect them to control this one from start to finish.
