It is a classic clash of styles in Storrs: Butler wants to push the pace and score in transition, while UConn wants to grind you into dust with the nation’s 10th-ranked defense. With the Bulldogs shooting well from deep but struggling at the charity stripe, can they keep up if the Huskies force a half-court game? We analyze the tempo battle to determine the right side of the spread.
The Setup: Butler at UConn
UConn’s laying 14.5 to 15 points at home against Butler in a Big East battle, and I can already hear the skeptics: That’s a lot of points in a conference game between two tournament-caliber teams. Look, I get it. Butler’s 7-2, scoring 87.6 points per game (#39 nationally), and they just hung 113 on Providence. This isn’t some cupcake walking into Storrs.
Here’s the thing – when you dig into the CBD efficiency numbers, this line isn’t just justified. It might be a gift. UConn’s adjusted net efficiency of +23.8 ranks 10th nationally. Butler checks in at +14.8, good for 42nd. That’s a nine-point gap in adjusted net efficiency, and we’re getting a 14.5-point spread. Let me walk you through why this number makes complete sense, and why I’m backing the Huskies to cover at Gampel Pavilion.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Butler Bulldogs (7-2) @ UConn Huskies (8-1)
When: Monday, December 16, 2025 – 8:30 PM ET
Where: Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, CT
TV/Stream: Conference Game
The Line:
Spread: UConn -14.5 (DraftKings) / -15 (Bovada)
Total: 148.5 (DraftKings) / 148 (Bovada)
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap tells the entire story here. According to collegebasketballdata.com, UConn’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 119.4 (#26), while their adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 10th nationally at 95.6. Butler’s offensive efficiency of 117.0 (#43) is solid, but their defensive rating of 102.2 (#66) is where things fall apart in this matchup.
Here’s what that means in plain English: UConn is elite on both ends of the floor. Butler can score, but they’re merely above-average defensively. When you’re facing a UConn offense that ranks 14th nationally in offensive rating (135.3) in a building where they protect home court, that defensive gap becomes a chasm.
Now, the pace element matters here. UConn plays at 59.2 possessions per game (#353 – one of the slowest in the country). Butler operates at 72.9 (#46). UConn’s going to dictate tempo at home, which means fewer possessions. But here’s the kicker – do that math over 65-68 possessions, and a nine-point efficiency gap translates to roughly 12-15 points in actual scoring margin. That’s exactly where this line sits.
Butler’s Situation
Butler brings legitimate firepower. Finley Bizjack leads the way at 18.0 points per game, and Michael Ajayi is a double-double machine – 16.2 points and 11.6 rebounds per game (#4 nationally in rebounding). That’s elite glass work. The Bulldogs shoot 39.4% from three (#21) and 49.6% overall (#43), so they’re not offensively challenged.
The problem? They just gave up 113 points to Providence in a win and 77 to Boise State in a loss. That defensive rating of 98.9 looks decent on paper (#74), but the adjusted defensive efficiency of 102.2 (#66) tells me they haven’t faced this level of offensive execution yet. Butler allows opponents to shoot 42.0% from the field (#119) and 31.1% from three (#113). Those are middle-of-the-pack numbers.
Here’s the other concern: Butler’s free throw shooting sits at 65.6% (#322). That’s atrocious. In a game where UConn will force you into half-court execution and potentially foul you late, you can’t leave 8-10 points at the line.
UConn’s Situation
The Huskies are built differently this season. That defensive rating of 95.6 adjusted defensive efficiency (#10) isn’t a fluke – they hold opponents to 37.4% shooting (#14) and just 26.8% from three (#17). According to CBD, they’re allowing only 60.4 points per game (#8 nationally). That’s suffocating.
Offensively, UConn doesn’t blow you away with volume, but their efficiency is elite. An offensive rating of 135.3 (#14) means they maximize every possession. Tarris Reed Jr. (15.5 PPG, 8.2 RPG) controls the paint, Solo Ball (14.6 PPG) provides perimeter scoring, and Alex Karaban (13.4 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is the glue guy. Silas Demary Jr. dishes 5.6 assists per game (#45 nationally), orchestrating everything.
The Huskies just beat Texas, Florida, and Kansas in a three-game stretch. That 61-56 win at Kansas? In Allen Fieldhouse? That’s the kind of road grit that translates to dominant home performances. They turn you over (opponents average 9.6 turnovers per game, #19), they block shots (5.4 per game, #19), and they don’t beat themselves (9.6 turnovers per game, #19).
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Butler’s ability to score in the half-court against UConn’s elite defense. Butler wants to push pace (72.9 possessions) and get out in transition (148 fast break points). UConn wants to slow it down (59.2 possessions) and force you into contested jumpers.
I keep coming back to those three-point defense numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. UConn allows 26.8% from three (#17). Butler shoots 39.4% from three (#21). Something’s gotta give. My money’s on UConn’s defensive scheme winning that battle at home. When Butler’s forced into half-court sets against that 95.6 adjusted defensive efficiency, their offensive rating of 120.3 is going to crater.
The rebounding battle favors Butler on paper – they grab 42.7 boards per game (#20) compared to UConn’s 36.9 (#187). But UConn’s offensive rebounding percentage of 30.1% (#224) doesn’t hurt them because they don’t miss many shots, and they protect the defensive glass. Butler’s offensive rebounding rate of 33.1% (#114) is solid, but against UConn’s size and discipline, those second chances dry up.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Butler’s 102.2 adjusted defensive efficiency (#66) against UConn’s 119.4 adjusted offensive efficiency (#26). That’s a 17-point gap per 100 possessions. Even if Butler scores efficiently, they can’t stop UConn from getting high-quality looks.
My Play
The Pick: UConn -14.5 (2.5 units)
I’m laying the points with the Huskies at home. The efficiency gap is massive, the defensive matchup heavily favors UConn, and Butler’s 65.6% free throw shooting (#322) means they can’t capitalize on late-game fouling situations. UConn’s 8-1 record includes wins over tournament teams in hostile environments. Butler’s good, but they’re not built to slow down this version of UConn in Storrs.
The main risk here is if Butler gets nuclear from three and pushes the pace into the mid-70s possession-wise. But UConn’s been excellent at controlling tempo all season, and that 95.6 adjusted defensive efficiency (#10) doesn’t allow many shooting explosions.
I’m projecting UConn 78, Butler 61. That’s a 17-point margin that clears the number comfortably. The efficiency metrics point to a double-digit beatdown, and I’m riding with the Huskies to make a statement in Big East play.
