Cal Poly has suddenly found its offensive rhythm, but they’re walking into a buzzsaw in Honolulu. Hawai’i has won nine straight meetings in this series, including a 20-point blowout just last month. Given the Warriors’ 12-1 home record, the efficiency math makes them a high-value best bet despite the double-digit spread.
The Setup: Cal Poly at Hawai’i
Hawai’i’s laying 11 at home against Cal Poly on Thursday night, and I’m already hearing the pushback about the double-digit spread in a conference game. But when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t some coin-flip Big West slugfest—it’s a legitimately lopsided matchup that the market might actually be underselling.
Here’s what jumps off the page: Hawai’i owns a 14-point net rating advantage over Cal Poly in adjusted efficiency. The Warriors check in at #92 nationally with a +8.0 net rating, while the Mustangs sit at #235 with a -6.0 mark. That’s not a small gap—that’s a chasm. Hawai’i’s defense ranks #36 in adjusted defensive efficiency at 99.9, while Cal Poly’s defense sits at #274 with a 113.9 rating. Translation: One team knows how to guard, the other bleeds points like a sieve.
The spread is 11. My model says it should be closer to 19. That’s an 8-point discrepancy, and it’s worth exploring why the market landed where it did—and whether there’s value to be found in this late-night Hawaii trip.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Cal Poly (11-16) at Hawai’i (18-6)
Date: Thursday, February 19, 2026
Time: 11:59 PM ET
Venue: Stan Sheriff Center, Honolulu, HI
Conference: Big West
Spread: Hawai’i -11 to -11.5
Total: 161.5
Moneyline: Hawai’i -950, Cal Poly +600
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market settled on 11 for a reason, and it’s not because oddsmakers are being generous to Cal Poly. When you’re looking at a Thursday night game with an 11:59 PM Eastern tip, you’re dealing with reduced liquidity and less market efficiency. That’s when numbers can drift from their true value.
But here’s the thing: the efficiency gap screams bigger blowout potential. Hawai’i’s #36 defense against Cal Poly’s #248 offense (107.5 offensive rating) is a brutal mismatch. The Warriors are allowing just 67.8 points per game—#35 nationally—while holding opponents to 40.6% shooting and a ridiculous 27.9% from three (#5 in the country). Cal Poly, meanwhile, is giving up 85.3 points per game, ranking #359 out of 363 teams. That’s not a typo. They’re one of the worst defensive teams in Division I basketball.
The pace dynamic matters here too. Cal Poly plays at a blistering 74.6 tempo (#5 nationally), while Hawai’i prefers a more controlled 70.5 pace. The blended pace projects to around 72-73 possessions, which means more opportunities for Hawai’i’s defense to suffocate and for Cal Poly’s defensive flaws to get exposed. My model projects a 19-point Hawai’i win with a total around 157. The market is giving you 11 and 161.5. One of these numbers is wrong.
Cal Poly Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let’s not pretend Cal Poly doesn’t have some offensive firepower. They’re scoring 81.3 points per game and running at that breakneck pace, which creates volume shooting opportunities. Hamad Mousa is a legitimate bucket-getter at 20.5 points per game (#25 nationally), and Peter Bandelj adds another 17.4 per night. When they’re hitting shots, they can score in bunches.
The Mustangs also shoot free throws at a 77.5% clip (#19 nationally), which matters if they can draw fouls and get to the line. Their true shooting percentage of 57.3% and effective field goal percentage of 52.4% suggest they’re not just chucking—they’re generating decent looks.
But here’s the fatal flaw: they turn the ball over 16 times per game (#365) with a turnover ratio that ranks #349. Against Hawai’i’s disciplined defense, those giveaways become dagger transition opportunities. And defensively? They’re a disaster. That #359 ranking in opponent points per game tells you everything. They can’t stop anyone, and Hawai’i won’t need to play perfectly to score.
Hawai’i Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Hawai’i’s strength is obvious: they defend like a top-40 team and play with discipline at home. Isaac Johnson anchors the interior at 13.9 points and 7.5 rebounds per game, while Dre Bullock provides two-way versatility at 12.1 points and 6.7 boards. This isn’t a one-man show—it’s a balanced, well-coached unit that knows its identity.
The Warriors block 3.8 shots per game (#112) and force opponents into contested jumpers. That perimeter defense is elite, especially from three where they’re holding teams to just 27.9%. Cal Poly shoots 33.9% from deep, which is respectable, but against this Hawai’i defense? Expect that number to drop.
Offensively, Hawai’i isn’t explosive, but they don’t need to be. They’re scoring 79.8 per game with a 111.3 offensive rating, and they do it efficiently with a 57.7% true shooting mark. They take care of the ball better than Cal Poly (13.7 turnovers vs. 16.0), and they rebound at a high level (39.8 per game, #27 nationally). Against a Cal Poly defense that can’t guard anyone, Hawai’i should get whatever they want in the half-court.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to one simple question: Can Cal Poly’s offense overcome its catastrophic defense? And the answer, based on the numbers, is no. Not in Honolulu. Not against a top-40 defense.
The head-to-head history supports this. In January, Hawai’i demolished Cal Poly 86-66 on the road. That’s a 20-point beatdown, and it happened away from the Stan Sheriff Center. Now we’re asking Cal Poly to flip that script in one of the toughest road environments in the Big West? Not happening.
The pace will favor Cal Poly’s preferred style, but that cuts both ways. More possessions means more opportunities for Hawai’i’s defense to create turnovers and transition buckets. Cal Poly’s 16 turnovers per game become 18-20 in this environment, and each one is a dagger. Meanwhile, Hawai’i’s offensive rebounding and second-chance opportunities will pile up against Cal Poly’s mediocre defensive rebounding.
The total feels inflated at 161.5. My model projects 157, and I trust Hawai’i’s defense to keep this under. Cal Poly will try to run, but Hawai’i will control tempo and force them into half-court sets where the Mustangs struggle. Expect a game in the 80-65 range, not the shootout the market is pricing in.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m staying away from the spread. Eleven points feels light based on the efficiency gap, but laying double digits in a conference game on a Thursday night at midnight Eastern? That’s asking for trouble. If you love Hawai’i, take them. They should win by 15-plus. But I’m not laying 11 when my model says 19—that’s just bad process.
The play here is Under 161.5. Hawai’i’s defense is too good, and Cal Poly’s offense—while capable—won’t consistently solve it. The pace will be fast, but the execution won’t match the volume. I’m projecting something around 82-64 Hawai’i, which lands us at 146. Even if I’m off by 6-7 points, we’re still comfortably under.
Best Bet: Under 161.5
Hawai’i wins and covers, but the under is the sharper play. Trust the defense, fade the inflated total, and cash your ticket before sunrise.
