CBB Picks: Iowa at Michigan State Analysis & Prediction

by | Last updated Jan 26, 2023 | cbb

Iowa (12-7 SU 12-7 ATS) vs. Michigan State (13-7 SU 11-9 ATS)
When: Thursday, January 26th: 7:00 ET
Where: Breslin Center East Lansing, MI
Point Spread: IA +2.5/MSU -2.5
Total: 147.5
Money Line: Iowa St. +120/Mich St. -148

This is the first meeting this season between the Hawkeyes and the Spartans. Iowa has taken the last three in this series, including the last two. They’ll be looking to rebound off a poor road effort against the Buckeyes, where they were lit up for 93 points in the 16-point loss. The Oddsmaker has Michigan State as a small -2.5 home favorite.

Line Movement

Not a lot of spread line movement for this game, with Michigan State opening at most betting sites at -2.5 to -3 and now a consensus line of -2.5. The total is a different story hitting the board at 147.5 and dropping a full two points to 145.5

Last Game Info

Iowa most recently fell to Ohio State (93-77). Not only did the Hawkeyes lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +3 point underdogs. The combined 170 points finished above the 154 total line.

Michigan State most recently fell to Indiana (82-69). Not only did the Spartans lose straight-up, but they picked up an ATS defeat as +4.5 point underdogs. The combined 151 points finished above the 137.5 total line.

Current Form

Over their last five games, Iowa has a straight-up record of 4-1 while going 4-1 vs. the spread. Over this stretch, the Hawkeyes offense averages 83.6 points per game while hitting 48.5% of their shots from the field. On the defensive end of the floor, they have allowed opponents to shoot 49.1% from the field while allowing 79.6 points per contest.

Michigan State
In their previous five contests, Michigan State is 2-3 straight-up and 3-2 vs. the spread. In these five games, they have a scoring average of 67.4 points per game on a shooting percentage of 46.7%. Defensively, they allow teams to hit 42.9% of their shots while giving up 68.6 points per game.

Average Power Rating Of Opponents Played

This season, the combined power rating of Iowa’s opponents comes in at 82. On the other side, Michigan State’s combined opponent power rating sits at 83.1.

How Does Iowa Fare On The Road?

For the season, the Hawkeyes have played six road games and have a record of 2-4. In these contests, Iowa is 2-4 vs. the spread. Offensively, they have averaged 71.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 40.9%. On defense, the Hawkeyes allow 75.5 points per contest when playing away from home. So far, opposing teams have a field goal percentage of 47.0% in these games.

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How Does Michigan State Fare At Home?

In their 13 games at home, Michigan State has a 7-6 record vs. the spread while going 10-3 straight-up. On offense, the Spartans are shooting 45.8% on their home floor, leading to 70.8 points per game. Defensively, opponents are shooting 39.2% in these contests. The Michigan State defense is allowing 63.5 points per game at home.

Offense vs. Defense

For the season, Iowa is averaging 83.8 points per game (7th) while posting an overall field goal percentage of 46.4%. In today’s game, they will be matched up against a Michigan State defense that has allowed an average of 65.8 points per contest. This year, opponents have hit 40.6% of their shots vs. Michigan State. On the other side, the Michigan State Spartans are coming into the game averaging 72.1 points per game on a shooting percentage of 45.7%. The Spartans will be facing a defensive unit allowing an average of 73.5 points per contest. So far, teams have hit 45.9% of their shots vs. the Hawkeyes.

Three-Point Shooting

From beyond the arc, Iowa has a shooting percentage of 36.8% while ranking 178th in attempts per game. The Hawkeyes will be facing a Michigan State defense that has a 3-point field goal shooting percentage allowed of 30.4%. Michigan State enters the game having hit 37.8% of their looks from deep while averaging 7.18 made 3’s per game. On the other end, Iowa has allowed opponents to hit 34.7% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Injuries Of Note


  • Patrick McCaffery (Out) Personal
  • Josh Ogundele (Out) Knee

Michigan State

  • Tyson Walker (Probable) Virus
  • Malik Hall (Out) Leg

Pick Against The Spread

I’m not against backing the favorite here, but the public is over them, and the line, if anything, is ticking downward. Meaning that there is some sharp action coming in on Iowa. So, I’m going to pass. I do like the total here, though. The Hawkeyes can score. There is no arguing that, but they score, on average, seven fewer points per game on the road. Michigan State plays lights-out defense at home, allowing 59.8 PPG on 37.8% FG shooting and a crazy low 24.3% from three-point land. Take the UNDER 145.5. Bet your college hoops predictions for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus up to $500 when you use promo code PREDICTEM at Betnow Sportsbook!