Bernie Blunt III and the Lakers aim to exploit the nation’s worst defensive rating as they host Chicago State. Handicapper Bash evaluates the 130.5 total and delivers his best bet for today’s 2:00 PM ET tipoff.
The Setup: Chicago State at Mercyhurst
Mercyhurst is laying 9.5 points at home against Chicago State, and honestly, this number feels light when you consider what we’re dealing with. The Cougars are 0-9, getting absolutely demolished on a nightly basis, and the efficiency numbers from collegebasketballdata.com tell a story that’s even uglier than that winless record suggests. Chicago State ranks 350th in offensive rating at 94.1 and 358th in defensive rating at 127.6. That’s not just bad—that’s historically catastrophic. Meanwhile, Mercyhurst sits at 313th offensively but 71st defensively, and that defensive foundation is exactly why this spread should be comfortable money for the home side. When you’ve got a team that can’t score meeting a team that doesn’t allow easy buckets, the math gets simple real quick.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Chicago State (0-9) @ Mercyhurst (4-6)
Date: January 25, 2026
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Venue: Mercyhurst Athletic Center, Erie, PA
Conference: NEC
Spread: Mercyhurst -9.5
Total: 130.5
Moneyline: Mercyhurst -425 to -550, Chicago State +330 to +390
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed at 9.5, and I’m actually surprised it’s not higher given the efficiency gap. Look at the adjusted numbers: Mercyhurst has an adjusted net rating of -7.3 while Chicago State sits at -18.1. That’s nearly an 11-point gap in adjusted efficiency, and we’re getting a spread that’s right in that wheelhouse. The total at 130.5 makes perfect sense when you factor in Mercyhurst’s pace at 65.7 (275th nationally) and their defensive rating. They’re not trying to run teams off the floor—they grind possessions, limit transition opportunities, and force you to execute in the halfcourt.
Chicago State averages just 64.3 points per game (351st) while allowing 88.4 (359th). Mercyhurst puts up 67.4 (338th) while giving up only 65.3 (30th nationally). That defensive ranking is real, folks. They’re holding opponents to 40.8% shooting (78th) and 33.8% from three (237th). When you’ve got a team that can actually defend meeting a team that shoots 40.1% from the field (345th) and 29.4% from three (322nd), you’re looking at a game that stays under control. The spread reflects reality here—this should be a comfortable Mercyhurst win without the fireworks.
Chicago State Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let’s be real: there is no analytical edge for Chicago State. This is a team that ranks 357th in effective field goal percentage at 44.2% and 352nd in true shooting percentage at 49.4%. They can’t shoot, they can’t defend, and they’re getting blown out by nearly 25 points per game. Marcus Tankersley leads them at 14.8 points per game, but he’s doing it on volume without efficiency. The only bright spot? They rank 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage at 36.4%, which means they at least crash the glass and create second chances.
But here’s the problem: they rank 365th—dead last—in blocks per game at 0.8 and allow opponents to shoot 50.9% from the field (361st). They have no rim protection, no perimeter defense, and no offensive firepower to compensate. Their last five games tell the story: losses by 21, 6, 15, 3, and 7. Even when they keep it close, they find ways to lose. On the road against a team that actually plays defense? This gets ugly.
Mercyhurst Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Mercyhurst isn’t lighting up the scoreboard, but they don’t need to be. Bernie Blunt III is a legitimate scoring threat at 17.0 points per game (137th nationally), and Jake Lemelman provides secondary scoring at 12.8 per game. The Lakers shoot 45.1% from the field (193rd) and 50.4% effective field goal percentage (251st)—nothing spectacular, but competent enough to exploit Chicago State’s porous defense.
Where Mercyhurst wins this game is on the defensive end. That 98.8 defensive rating (71st) is legit, and they protect the rim with 3.9 blocks per game (115th). They force turnovers at a respectable rate with 7.6 steals per game (142nd) and only cough it up 11.0 times per game (86th). The turnover ratio sits at a solid mark, and they take care of the basketball. Their last five games show wins over New Haven, Central Connecticut, and Wagner—all by controlling tempo and defense. They lost two close ones to Stonehill and Long Island, but those are competitive NEC opponents. Chicago State isn’t in that class.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided in the first ten minutes. Mercyhurst will establish their defensive identity early, force Chicago State into bad shots, and build a lead that the Cougars simply can’t overcome. Chicago State’s offensive rating of 94.1 means they’re scoring less than a point per possession against average competition. Against a defense that ranks 71st nationally? They’re going to struggle to crack 55 points.
The pace factor works entirely in Mercyhurst’s favor. They play at 65.7 possessions per game, which limits Chicago State’s opportunities to get hot from three or create transition buckets. The Cougars generate only 84 fast break points on the season—they’re not a team that thrives in the open floor anyway. Mercyhurst will pack the paint, dare Chicago State to shoot from outside, and watch them clank shots off the rim all afternoon.
The rebounding battle matters here. Chicago State crashes the offensive glass, but Mercyhurst’s 30.4% offensive rebounding rate (209th) and overall defensive discipline should neutralize that advantage. With Mykolas Ivanauskas and Qadir Martin combining for nearly 12 rebounds per game, the Lakers have the size to box out and limit second chances. Chicago State’s best path to covering involves getting hot from three and creating chaos with turnovers, but they rank 322nd in three-point shooting and Mercyhurst only turns it over 11.0 times per game. The math doesn’t add up for the road dog.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 9.5 with Mercyhurst and feeling good about it. This isn’t a sexy play, and it’s not going to make highlight reels, but it’s the right side. Chicago State is winless for a reason—they can’t score, can’t defend, and can’t compete against even mediocre competition. Mercyhurst is exactly mediocre, and that’s more than enough here. The Lakers’ defensive rating is top-75 nationally, and they’re facing a team that ranks in the bottom ten in nearly every offensive category.
The spread should be closer to 12 or 13 based on the efficiency gap, so we’re getting value at 9.5. Mercyhurst wins this game by 15-plus if they execute their gameplan and don’t fall asleep. Take the home favorite, trust the defense, and watch Chicago State’s miserable season continue. This is as close to a lock as you’ll find in college basketball.
