The Colgate Raiders head to Case Gym on Monday night as slight favorites, and our model has identified a significant advantage for this ATS pick based on the defensive disparity. While Boston University boasts elite three-point shooting, their #349 national ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency makes them a risky point spread bet against a disciplined Colgate offense.
The Setup: Colgate at Boston University
Colgate’s laying 1.5 to 2 points at Boston University on Monday night, and the market’s treating this like a coin flip. It’s not. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this is a clear mismatch disguised as a tight Patriot League game. Colgate sits at #200 in adjusted net rating with a minus-2.2 mark, while BU checks in at #273 with a minus-9.1. That’s a 6.9-point gap in pure efficiency, and it shows up everywhere that matters. The Raiders are #221 defensively versus the Terriers at #349—that’s a 128-spot chasm. Boston University can score—they’re #139 in adjusted offense—but they can’t stop anyone, and that’s death against a Colgate squad that’s won seven of ten and goes 10-4 in conference play. The model projects Colgate by 3.7 with the home bump factored in, making this 2-point spread look like a gift.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 16, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Venue: Case Gym, Boston, MA
Records: Colgate 16-11 (10-4 Patriot) | Boston University 12-15 (7-7 Patriot)
Betting Lines:
- Spread: Colgate -1.5 to -2
- Total: 143.5
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market’s giving Colgate minimal respect here, and I understand the hesitation. Boston University’s won four straight at home, covering in three of those, and they’re 8-5 overall at Case Gym. But here’s what the efficiency tells us: BU’s defensive rating of 119.8 ranks #349 nationally. They allow 46.7% from the field and a ghastly 37.1% from three—both bottom-50 marks. Colgate shoots 48.5% overall and 36.1% from deep, with an effective field goal percentage of 54.7% that ranks #68 nationally. The Raiders also turn it over at an elite rate—10.5 per game ranks #68—while BU coughs it up 11.7 times (#193). That assist-to-turnover ratio gap is massive: Colgate at 1.38 versus BU’s 1.26.
The pace will grind—projected at 62.5 possessions based on Colgate’s 64.5 tempo (#293) and BU’s 60.6 (#365). In a slower game, efficiency gaps get magnified. The better team doesn’t need volume to win; they just need to execute in the half-court. Colgate’s offensive rating of 112.1 versus BU’s defensive rating of 114.6 creates a clear advantage. The 2-point spread undervalues what should be a 4-point edge on a neutral floor, even accounting for home court.
Colgate Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Colgate’s strength is balance and ball security. Jalen Cox runs the show at 15.0 points and 5.4 assists per game—that assist number ranks #50 nationally. Andrew Alekseyenko provides interior presence at 13.9 points and 5.6 boards, while Sam Wright adds 12.9 points as a versatile forward. The Raiders don’t beat themselves—their 0.1 turnover ratio ranks #34, and they defend the three-point line well, holding opponents to 32.4% (#117).
The shooting numbers jump off the page: 48.5% from the field (#33), 54.7% effective field goal percentage (#68), and 57.8% true shooting (#93). They’re not elite from the free-throw line at 72.8%, but they don’t need to be when they’re this clean in the half-court. Against BU’s porous defense, Colgate should generate quality looks all night. The Raiders went 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and are 8-7 straight up away from home. They handle business in conference play, going 10-4 with wins at Holy Cross and Bucknell in their last three road trips.
Boston University Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Boston University can score—don’t get it twisted. Their 110.7 adjusted offensive rating ranks #139, and they shoot lights out from deep at 38.9% (#10 nationally). Michael McNair leads at 16.3 points per game, and they’ve got multiple threats in Ben Defty (11.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG) and Chance Gladden (11.0 PPG, 3.7 APG). Their 60.7% true shooting percentage ranks #22 nationally, and when they’re hot from three, they can hang with anyone.
The problem is they can’t stop anyone. That #349 defensive ranking isn’t a typo. They’ve allowed 75.5 points per game overall and 75.1 in their last ten. Against conference competition, they’re 7-7 with a plus-2.5 scoring margin—mediocre at best. Their home defense allows 73.9 points per game, and when you face a disciplined Colgate offense that doesn’t turn it over, you can’t survive on shooting variance alone. BU’s 4.9 steals per game (#344) means they don’t create transition opportunities, and in a 60-possession grind, that’s a death sentence.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This comes down to execution in the half-court, and Colgate has every advantage. The Raiders rank #68 in turnovers per game versus BU’s #193—that’s a 4-possession swing in a 62-possession game. Colgate’s defense holds opponents to 43.4% from the field (#132) while BU allows 46.7% (#313). That 3.3-percentage-point gap translates to 4-5 extra buckets over a full game.
The head-to-head history matters here. Colgate’s 8-2 in the last ten meetings, including an 80-79 win at BU earlier this season on January 24. The Raiders average 76.9 points in those matchups while holding BU to 66.5—a 10-point margin. Boston University shoots just 40.69% from the field in those games and gets outrebounded 36.5 to 34.9 despite playing half those games at home.
The model projects a total of 137.1—six full points under the 143.5 market number. Both teams play slow, and Colgate’s defense will force BU into contested half-court sets. The Terriers’ three-point shooting keeps them in games, but Colgate defends the arc well at 32.4% allowed. This stays in the 130s.
Bash’s Best Bet
Colgate -2 (-110)
I’m laying the short number with the better team. Colgate’s 6.9-point net rating edge and superior defense make this a 4-point game on a neutral floor. Even with BU’s home court, the Raiders should win by 3-4. The 16-11 record undersells how good Colgate’s been in conference play—10-4 with wins over quality Patriot League opponents. Boston University’s four-game home win streak is fool’s gold built on beating Army, Bucknell twice, and Loyola Maryland. Colgate’s the best team they’ve faced at Case Gym in weeks, and the efficiency gap is too wide to ignore. Take the Raiders and trust the numbers. This should be 3.5, not 2.
